Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Surprise pop. Wed Dec 29

A late but happily received Christmas present came along this morning in the form of a 35% reduction in export quotas for Chinese rare earths. Both Arafura and Lynas have popped. At present Aru is up 11 cents or 9% at 133 and Lyc is up 20 at 182 which is a rise of more than 12%.
I've sold a few Lyc at 181.5 but kept all of my Aru longs. The Lyc chart is further advanced but the Aru chart looks quite explosive.













I'm confused about the gold chart (in USD) at present and was surprised by a $22 rise, taking it back above 1400.
Rather than trade Avo, where I've been caught out because the situation has been muddied by the approaching merger with Anatolia, I decided to jump into a middle sized long position in Intrepid. This has been the cleanest chart until recently, although I'm only looking to trade a retracement rally here. Long at 195 with two recent lows around 185 and a stop just below. I'm hoping for a quick move to, say, 215. (I would have been better buying Avo actually, as Iau has gone nowhere and Avo has run steadily all morning). So be it.
12.21 It's another strange old day with the market falling 21 points for no obvious reason. There's a little sell signal on the Xjo 60 minutes chart.
The overnight lead was flat and metals were firmer. While we were closed the Chinese authorities raised rates and it looks like there was some weakness in the Shanghai index but the summary I watched indicated that there was a sense of relief that the wait for a rise was over.
I've done some thinking about sharpening up my trading and one point is to get out of underperforming positions sooner. Ie, if it's not running or looking very positive then close it out. It's an obvious point and a tactic I've employed with mixed results previously, but now that I'm broadly content with my techniques, I'm ready to be more focussed.
To that end, sold out most of my Ost at 261 with a few at 262. Also sold a third of the Wsa at 604. Holding fire on Ozl as I'm undecided for the moment and thinking of giving it another day. I can't decide whether I think it has made a lower high in three waves or is ready to push further. Copper is trending strongly and I wonder whether it's just the Christmas lull which is keeping this subdued.

3.06 Asian markets are mostly higher with the HSI up almost 1%. It has helped the local market to pick up and the loss is just 11 points now.
Lynas has dipped to 177 but Aru has held up although I've sold out a small amount at 133 as the stock consolidated there for a couple of hours. Intrepid is catching up with the other gold miners and is at 199, I bought more stock at 198 and took my average entry price to 196.

4.14 The Asx 200 recovered throughout the afternoon and the day's drop was limited to 2 points. Best performers were the rare earth stocks with Arafura pipping Lynas with an 11% rise to close at 135.5.
Sold the last of my One Steel at 261.

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