Catching up. Wed Dec 15

Just caught up with an old trading buddy for breakfast this morning. We were talking about how strong Bsl had been and it got me thinking that Ost probably wasn't going to retrace any further and might be ready for another leg up. The opening match was strong so it seemed like there was some buying and I got long at 266. For once, with this stock, I didn't run into a wall of selling and it has kept going and popped up to 272 to confirm a buy signal. It's a tick lower now. Stop is just below 260 and 290 might be a reasonable short term target.

I'm not one for networking but it obviously has some benefits.

Paladin has been firm early but I still like the short so I sold a few more at 500.

The broader US indices were fractionally higher while the narrower Dow was up 50 points. Bonds were weak again and commodities flat. The Aussie market is up 11 points after 45 minutes and it adds weight to the idea that our default state now is to grind up.

11.31 We're drifting back into pre-Christmas torpor with the gain reduced to 8 points. The Japanese and Korean indices are similar.

Just got out of Fmg at 678 as it loses some momentum.

Qantas is pushing on - thanks Oprah. Still long there at 269 and 270.

1.06 The HSI is down about half a percent early and the Asx 200 has drifted to a loss of 2 points.

I'm uneasy about Lynas. It has had a chance to recover after making a minor double bottom at 145.5 last Friday but the three days since then hasn't delivered much of a rally. Morgan Stanley keep putting in the required notices announcing changes in their substantial holding which they would be required to do up to the point where the holding would go below 5%. The last one registered a reduction in their stake in the company from 9.47% to 8.39% which equated to a reduction from 157m shares to 139m shares held. This selling took place between Nov 29 and Dec 6 and is a sizeable headwind for the stock to face especially if the selling is ongoing.

2.34 I'd taken Telstra off my list but watched the big rally in November as the bill was passed to allow structural separation of Telstra. There's been a retracement but today might have signalled that it's finished. I've just bought some at 278 with a stop at around 270.

3.04 I've cut my Lynas at 147. It's above my stop but I think it looks quite weak. Of course, it could hold again here and turn around with a break through 154 but it doesn't seem too hard to buy stock. It had become a stale position and I'm glad to be out in order to get a fresh perspective. The other salient point was that I've got a couple of new longs in Ost and Tls which look more straightforward and since my book was getting too large, the weakest position had to go. I've also sold the small amount of Arafura that I had on.

Here's the updated Lyc chart.

3.48 Lynas has ticked below last week's support to trade as low as 145. It's holding for the moment but I think the break could be significant since there had already been some overlap of support. Also, there's a pretty close stop at about 154 so I've put on a short position at 145.5. I don't often cut and reverse and in this case, it's really just a sign that I held on for too long.

4.12 It was a nutty day summed up by an operator error causing Bhp to plunge nearly a dollar on 4pm only for it to match out pretty much where it was trading previously.

The market closed up 1 point but that didn't tell the story from my point of view as good early profit gains evaporated. I'm happy to be out of my long in Lynas and to have reversed into a small short although I wasn't so pleased to see a late rally to 147.5.

I'm comfortable with most of the rest and bought back the extra shorts in Pdn at 494. Western Areas is the problem now as I'm flirting with stopping out. It's not any more illiquid than usual but somehow the lack of volume is making the weakness seem hard to gauge. Might be worth narrowing time frames as we're well into holiday trading now.

The December spi contract expires at the open tomorrow so there may be a couple of opportunities to buy or sell if there's an imbalance somewhere.