Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Same old scene. Tue Dec 14

The first hour has seen the Xjo lift 5 points to 4762. The range has been narrow with the overnight lead having seen US indices close little changed after early strength. Commodities were stronger, USD weaker as the lack of a Chinese rate rise encouraged the risk trade.
My positions are little changed. I'm long Aru, Fmg, Lyc, Qan and Wsa and short Ipl. Best has been Fmg, up 9 at 675 where I've sold a couple. I also sold out of Iau early as it opened above 200 on a news release and sold off quickly. Out of some at 203 and the rest at 198. It was a quick punt and I wasn't sure why the stock was retreating so got out.
I've added a new short position in Pdn. It's in a pretty good uptrend but I thought it might have made a short term top with the last move from a mid November low of 435 pushing up to 517 on slowing momentum. This last wave looks to have subdivided into 5 as well, indicating that it might have completed. I'm short at 496 with a stop at about 510. I suppose it could grind down to the start of the last surge at 435 but I'm just looking for 20 or 30 cents.
1.44 The market is up 9 but I'm only marginally in front as my resources longs are not doing much. In fact, the best performer is the new short in Paladin, which is at 488.
Copper stocks are the best percentage gainers in my watchlist. I was looking for more of a pullback before buying Ozl so I've missed that boat although my assistant has got some Pna.
In the past, I would have been buying Ozl today but my approach now is to look for a bargain and let it go if I have to chase it. I guess if it tracked back over the next day or so I might be able to look at buying in the high 160s with a stop around 160. Here's the chart.

3.16 Well, Ozl keeps pushing on but I do have another that fits my criteria. I've bought a few Resolute at 131.5 and although I'm no longer so keen on gold stocks, it looks like a decent probability that there'll be another leg up. I'd guess that it would be likely to drop short of the recent highs so my target is the mid 140s.
Stop around 125.

4.12 The market closed up 10 points. It was fairly sleepy, end of year trading and there didn't seem to be a lot happening in Asia either.

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