Monday, December 13, 2010

Stopped clock. Mon Dec 13

Developments in China were interesting with most of the inflation in food prices and the government raising reserve requirements for banks but leaving rates unchanged. I guess in a command economy you have more tools than the blunt instrument of interest rates, for better or for worse, and there's talk that pressure is being exerted (on hoarders etc) to free up food supplies.
It's 12.20 pm and the Asx 200 is up 0.4%, waiting cautiously for the Chinese markets to open.
Lynas is showing signs of turning up. I feel like a stopped clock here, well almost. The clock will be right twice a day and I've had to wait a week or so - a long time in my game.
To recap, I misread the last swing and decided to stay in thinking that support around the mid to high 140s would hold. There's been minor overlap but so far it has and now there are tentative signs of a bounce with the stock up at 150. I bought more stock in the high 140s so this is my biggest long position at the moment.
12.31 Ipl is recovering from Friday's sell off and I've reshorted some of the stock I bought back. Price was 380 and I'll look to sell a few more if it goes higher. Stop is now at 395.
I was underwhelmed with my long position in Fortescue and execution at 661 was not the best either. But the general gist was right in that the stock had pulled back grudgingly over late November. Fmg has just pushed through a little resistance level in the low 660s that had held for a few days. It looks more promising now and I'm thinking off adding to the position if the Chinese markets hold up.

12.55 Shanghai is up more than 1% and the pre-market in Hong Kong is strong. Added a few more Fmg at 667.

2.15 I've been trying to resist the temptation for an hour or two but have succumbed and bought a small amount of Intrepid at 193. It has made a 5 wave pattern on the 60 minute chart and reversed. It's probably indicative that I should be just looking for a retracement to 210-215 rather than a new high.
I'll include the daily chart though because you can still get the sense of a potentially complete first swing down from the recent high. You can also see that there's clear overlap and the stock has lost momentum so it's got to be a quick trade. Intrepid has had a massive run which means that the potential for a sizeable pullback is also large so my stop needs to be pretty tight just below today's low of 185.

3.01 Western Areas has been underperforming today and is down 8 at 611 where I've just bought a couple more. I like the chart and expect 600 to provide good support. It's proving to be a slower move than I anticipated but I've traded in and out of the stock for a few bucks my way. I like the fact that there was a long, shallow, 3 wave correction through October and November.

Otherwise, I'm out of the last of the Karoon at 774 and have added more Qantas at 269.

3.47 The Asx 200 hasn't been able to sustain the early gains and we've drifted off to be up 13. The Hang Seng has cut its gains too although mainland Chinese markets are strong.
I've bought a couple more Wsa to average 608 today. They've been down to 603 but on very light volume. 606 now.
Not a lot of change, added a couple more Fmg at 664 while Lynas is holding up and a small long position in Arafura is performing well.

4.11 The index closed up 11 points. Not a bad day for me, Aru and Lyc look as if they could kick on and Fmg finished well at 666. Only fly in the ointment was Wsa and even they recovered from their lows to 610.
I think it's a market that grinds up now, Democrats overturning the US tax cuts would be the biggest danger.

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