Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Each way bet. Wed May 4

May the fourth be with you.
Nearly an hour into trading and down another 27 points. Oil and gold fell overnight and although the AUD is finally retracing (1.084), it's not really helping the resource stocks. The odds of a slowdown in China are increasing and it seems like that's the main driver. There's no love for the banks either as Westpac is the second major to have reported and the stock is down 1.8%.
There's bargain hunting here and there but I tend to think it will die away. I have a few potential shorts on rallies in resource stocks and have added a new short in annuity provider, Challenger, at 473. It's quite far from the last swing high of 493 so I'll use a break of yesterday's high as the stop. The first leg down from 510 to 475 subdivided into 5 waves and I'm hoping that this leg could turn into another extended move.

11.15 Old favourite, Linc Energy, has had a 15 cent bounce to 282. There are no announcements and I'd like to be long it but can't see how I could have bought it. The way it was shaping up, even if I wanted to pre-empt a higher low, I would have been waiting for a tentative rally and minor new low with no follow through. Oh well.
1 pm The Asx 200 has sunk to the day's low, a loss of 1%, with the top 20 underperforming.
The momentum is not slowing so the odds of this being a corrective move - ie a retracement of the rally - are diminishing.
3.13 Time for some consolidation with the Xjo 60 minute chart rolling up.

I bought some Lynas as a small index hedge. There's a potential higher low on the 60 minute chart.

3.50 Out of Lyc for a small hit as the potential rally peters out. I really need to keep away from the screen at the moment...my overnight trades are fine, intraday are useless.
I've got another short position now (overnight) in Seek as I'm looking for this to fail at the recent high. It may go a few cents higher so I have a looseish stop at around 720 which has meant a small position size. The recent pullback broke back below support, albeit temporarily.
4.13 Much the same as yesterday with the Asx 200 falling 44 to 4740 but slightly misleading in terms of the stocks I watch. 15 were down but 11 were up, 2 unchanged.

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