Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Normal service – part 2. Tue May 11

This might turn out to be a better piece of software. It feels strange to be using a Microsoft product rather than a Google one for design and ease of use reasons.

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The chart above is Western Areas, not dissimilar to Resolute in the shorter term. I went long this mid cap gold stock at 109 yesterday as I’m trading a potential completion of a pullback. Stop is at 103, 104. Gold retraced a further 1.2% overnight – a little less in AUD terms – and the potential is there for a quick move into the high teens…116-119.

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The market is surprising to the upside after 20 minutes with a rise of 20 points. I'm out of OSH at 709 because the late breaking news was another rise in margins, this time for oil, at the CME, I think.

The run in FMG is continuing and I've tipped out the last of my long stock at around 640. The stock is at 644 but I still have stock and puts so, in effect, a May 650 call option.

10.54 Happy enough with the move in FMG. Sold out the stock at 642 and got 19 for the puts so captured some premium too.

The Asx 200 has given up the gains and I'm left with longs in RSG and WSA, both drifting off, and a hedged position in BLD. It's a very poor performance in the index and my inclination is to dump these last two longs and sit on the sidelines.

11.40 A very strong trade result has strengthened the AUD and the near term prospects for a rate rise. It hasn't helped the market though and we're now down 18.

12.39 The market is very skittish, looked like it was going to collapse but found no follow through. The loss has been pared to 13 points and the market could go either way; the potential exists for a higher low and another leg up or it's as you were with the sell off after a brief hiatus. Here's the XJO daily.

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1.47 I've had a small win with Lynas on an intraday trade but there's not really a good overnight opportunity. Instead, I've bought some ARU at 112.5 because the stock has the potential to make a higher low and I can have a tight stop at around 107.

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3.28 The market is looking quite ropy again. Oil and gold stocks have been mixed today so any kick from the overnight commodities rebound was wiped out by fear of a resumption in falls following the CME margin rise. Oil and gold are lower in Asian trading but not heavily down.

4.12 The Asx 200 closed on its lows at 4726, a drop of 31 points. My few longs are ok for now and the day was profitable thanks to FMG, OSH and some jobbing in LYC.

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