The market is the little engine that could this morning. The weight of yesterday's rise caused the wheels to slip early but the Asx 200 has gained some traction and chugged up into the black. 12 points higher at 4672 after the first hour. The overnight lead was also a tale of triumph over adversity as indices clawed back early losses to post small gains. Commodities were pretty flat and the AUD is a touch firmer.
FMG isn't there yet, a break of 659 would be an encouraging sign that a decent rally is in the offing. However, I was looking for a trade through 636 to at least imply some short term strength. The stock opened at 640 and fortunately there was some broker selling in the June 650 calls so I was able to get the balance at 16.5.
12.04 It's all pretty quiet now, the index is up a few more points but my stocks aren't doing much. LNC is retracing some of yesterday's strong gains to be down 5 at 303 and AWE is starting to move, up 4 at 141.5.
I have a small new long position in KAR at 653. I had planned to pay 649, was distracted for a few minutes and the stock had popped. So I paid up and now the stock is back at 649. I'm looking for another leg up with a stop below Wednesday's low. The big picture has an overlapping retracement which so far has held above the March low. Of 3 broker comments this month, one has reiterated a buy, one has upgraded to buy and one has initiated coverage with a speculative buy recommendation. The target for these 3 averages 1070. The other 2 analysts haven't commented since March when they had 855 and 796 targets respectively.
1.45 Still grinding up with support from Asian markets and higher US futures. Up 25 now but a mixed bag as far as my positions go.
Paladin had a good day yesterday and is pushing higher today. This is one where I bought a reversal after 5 choppy waves down. It was problematic for two reasons: a, it was quite a strong reversal day when I bought so the stop was 7% away from my entry (303 v 324) and b, given that (worst case) stop, I needed to actively stop out on the first sign of momentum failing. The next day after entry was a doji, which was not excellent but only a warning sign since it did add slightly to the previous day's gains. However, the following bar, last Friday, saw the stock open and move above 330 only to fail and finish very near to the day's low.
Anyway, I didn't cut and had to sit through 3 days of retracement before a much better buy signal yesterday. I was already long so didn't add but at least the stock made its way back to 325. The nice thing about this entry is that you have more of a sense of selling momentum having faded and there's an entry at 317 with a stop at 307. Here's the daily.
3.42 We're just limping to the finish line as the market ebbs away, still up 13 though.
I'm worried about PDN, the 60 minute chart has developed a lame sort of c wave in 5 that isn't going anywhere. So, I've sold half at 325.
FMG has also sold off since the early 652 high but the intraday chart looks ok for the moment. Still within a range but higher lows and no overlap yet from the mini breakout.
4.13 A nice finish though after the slow sell off, up 24 at 4684, and no need to stop out of anything else. Adios.
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