Monday, May 9, 2011

Good value. Mon May 9

In the light of a fresh week, the market looks pretty good value. The resilience on Thursday and Friday signalled that the wave of AUD related selling was over and a benign jobs report helped the US to hold on to gains despite fresh European debt worries. Oil was down again but the base metals were only sold off lightly while gold recovered 20 bucks.
The Asx 200 raced out of the blocks as the market ignored a conservative 8 point rise in the overnight SPI. At 10.48 am, the gain is 39 points, just coming down from a 50 point peak.
I got out of the last  IPL early at 389 on a good result but no obvious positive surprise. FMG has been a great performer; I sold a few at 628 on the open in case the 16 cent jump was a fluke. I've since sold a couple more at 636 and it's sitting at 635.
I'm out of the short in BLD, buying stock 1 for 1 with my puts as it breaks the previous day's high for the first time since April 21st. Average buying price was 478.
OZL might have made a double bottom at 138.5 and now the stock has traded above Friday's high. I'm long at 140 with a tight stop at 137. You don't actually get many exact ones like this and for some reason they seem to perform very well overall...here's hoping.
11.34 OZL isn't giving me an easy ride; probably because I'm trying to pick a bottom there.
In a better percentage play, I've bought back into OSH at 696. I switched into FMG on Friday but after OSH slipped early on the oil price decline, it seemed like a nice opportunity to pre-empt a potential higher low on the 60 minute chart. It's working out so far and a trade through Friday's 704 high might see a little acceleration in the share price.
1.02 Asian markets are generally firm and US overnight futures are up about half a percent. The Aussie market has been pretty flat since the open but is doing reasonably well to hang on to the gains.
WSA has broken the high of the previous day for the first time in a couple of weeks. I was over anxious to pick the turn in this one and paid 657, 658 the other day. Simply waiting until this simple signal is a better approach and will usually save a couple of days of sweating if you've bought the false dawn as I often do. The entry price would have been slightly better too. Anyway, I did job a few on the day of the low and today I've added a handful more to the long position at an average of 652. The stock is now trading at 655.
I'd add the chart but it's playing hard to get.

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