Thursday, November 5, 2009

Awe inspiring. Thu Nov 5

I don't know whether AWE is all that inspiring but it's had a straightforward buy signal - admittedly in the middle of a trading range and therefore not as significant as it might be. I've taken it nonetheless, going long at 267.The overall market is more mind numbing than awe inspiring with a small up night overseas being ignored as we've sold off from a positive opening to be down 8 points at 11.25 am. On balance my positions are going ok with Lihir up again after another gold price rise.

11.53 I've added two short positions this morning. The first is in David Jones, a department store, which has reported solid quarterly sales figures this morning. The stock fell through support at 560 a week or so ago having failed to make a new high. It had a sharpish retracement and I've sold the break of yesterday's low. It's a similar reversal type trade to the one I put on yesterday in Sgp. I'm short at 528.5 as the stock has jumped about after the sales figures, it's at 532 now.

The second one is in Gff where I've sold a half size position (so far) at 158.5. This failed to hold support the other day indicating that it might have completed a small retracement rally and be ready to trend down. I'm selling the break of yesterday's low, looking for a more impulsive move down towards 150. Otherwise, I've stopped out of Bxb at 701 (v 724) as this stock has performed much like Karoon. Like Kar, it's also now off my watch list. I've reduced my list to 24 stocks and I still have 6 longs and 4 short positions. It's not surprising in some ways because the market is starting to trend after a choppy topping out period and there are more opportunities than normal so I'm happy to have a focussed list. I think there are times when 24 stocks will generate 12 or more signals over a few days and other times when there'll be one every second day.

12.45 Gff confirmed the signal with sales below 157.5 and I finished my selling at 156 to average 157.25.
The market is now down 30 points and has fallen through the tentative support that had been building over the last couple of days. Telstra has surprised me by falling further today to 318, having touched the last swing low of 317. My stop is quite close now at 316.
Trading involves accepting that no individual trade can be expected to make money but that overall you will be profitable. One way to deal with this is to focus on successfully following your rules or guidelines so that as much satisfaction is derived from stopping out at the right time as from harvesting a windfall gain.

2.55 Not a lot to report, down 28 points now on 8 week lows for the index - actually, we're 10 points above the lows at present but...

4.10 A fall of 32 points and some unfriendly closing matches have meant it's a minor down day for me. However, with the exception of Telstra which has closed at 317, my positions are not close to stops so I've left everything on. Lihir had a reversal day, trading at 339 near the open but closing down 3 at 328. My plan is to expect a pullback and then another go at the high, so I'm prepared to wait a couple of days on this.

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