Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Cold money? Wed Nov 25

This morning's overnight report in FNArena made a good case that the relative outperformance in the US, at least with regard to Australia, is probably due to hedge funds packing up for Christmas having banked 60% in Australia plus another 30% on the currency.
So far it's more of the same with the market drifting off 10 points already - it's 10.37 am - after an early rise probably predicated on the thought that we'd underperformed yesterday but US markets had held steady.

10.50 A small recovery now as the Spi contract bounces off Friday's lows. The sell signals in Bsl and Ost have come through.
Short Bsl at 276, unfortunately I missed the best price of 279.
Just short a small parcel in Ost at 301 as although it has broken below recent support it is still quite resilient.
11.34 Stopped out of Qan at 263 (v 278) as it ground below my stop of 265. The market overall has reversed again so that we're now up 17 points. It also made an exact double bottom at 4673.2 so I'm not feeling trementously comfortable about having 9 shorts and only 1 long especially as that long position is very close to my stop level. Still, none of the shorts are rallying so far.

11.45 Stopped out of Csr now at 180.5 (v 185.5). I was very patient with this one and was expecting a push towards 200 eventually but it now looks more and more like a failed rally.
12.22 This is Thanksgiving week in the USA so with their market closed on Thursday and partially on Friday and few other catalysts for action then we can expect an increasingly quiet week.

3.21 Earlier I sold some more Ost short at 299 to take the average to a fraction above 300. As I'm quite heavily short now I decided to buy back Aoe as it's the most marginal of my positions. So far, I've paid 401 (v 403) for just over half.

3.29 There's another sell signal in Awe with trades at 275.I haven't taken it yet because I feel like I've got this same trade on in various stocks. I think I'd prefer to take it tomorrow if there's some continuation and I haven't missed too much. Meanwhile, the market is on its highs for the day, up 33 points.

3.50 Tls and Qan, two long positions that I've chopped out of in the last two days, are both recovering. It was a judgement call to sell out with both and given that I have a lot of short positions perhaps it would have been wiser to stay in these.
Qantas is the most irritating because it continues to look like a choppy retracement from the small early November run up. However, a rally tomorrow would give me the opportunity to buy again.

4.13 Closed out the short in Aoe, buying the balance at 399 (v 403). The market finished on its highs with a rise of 37 points.

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