Friday, November 6, 2009

A full plate. Fri Nov 6

The US markets, as incorrigibly optimistic as ever, rallied around 2% last night and here in Australia, the land of drought and flood, boom and bust, we've temporarily shaken off our bearishness to rally 1.3% by 11.21 am.

11.39 The headline refers to the number of positions I now have because I've added 3 to the 10 I was already carrying. They all seem genuine to me and because I've defined my entries and exits more sharply I'm more comfortable with the book.

They're all long positions with the market reversing after a steep sell down. The first is in Axa, at an entry price of 417 and 421 for an average of 419. I didn't quite get a full position on here as the stock jumped ahead, it's now at 427.

This is a straight reversal after a very sharp, almost unremitting series of down days. It's bouncing off a point just above previous highs in July.

The next one is in Ipl, another reversal where I've bought at 262. This is after a series of down swings and given how many positions I'm carrying, I'm now wondering whether I need this one. These can reverse nicely but they're more likely to form a typical 1-2-3 buy signal so I can probably afford to wait. I'll see what the rest of the day brings before making a decision.

The third position comes from a stronger signal in Cey. I've been waiting for this for a few days and I'm long at 325 - the break was at 326. I do have some concerns, I'm surprised that it has taken until today to push on and there's not a lot of broker enthusiasm for the stock to help it along.
12.02 Most of my positions are going well to the extent that of my 4 short positions, 3 are square to marginally down and only Djs has rallied against me. This leads me to today's conundrum. My tightest stop here would be at 546, just above Wednesday's high. However, my take on this is that it's just a 3 wave rally from the break below 560 so it would be more rational to have a stop around there. As I'm also quite long, I'm happy to have any short positions on that I can justify. Part of me is questioning the motivation of this decision but on reflection I don't see this as a reluctance to crystallise a loss but simply as the most logical interpretation of the chart.

2.24 Not long back from lunch and I've cut Cey at 322 (v 325) as I realise what it is I'm uneasy about. This looks like the sort of retracement rally that Djs is having where a lower high has been made and the overall correction is still incomplete. I'm allowing my positions to run as a rule having discovered that I was missing out by being too trigger happy; however, in the case of Cey I think that I've probably misread the chart.
Meanwhile, Axa has gathered steam to be up at 432 and Fmg is showing signs of a Friday afternoon short covering rally as it is starting to run. I'm interested in a reversal buy in Qan as well. The stock looks like it could rally and unlike most of the market, it's still making higher highs and lows on a weekly basis, with the last swing low at 240 in early September.

4.12 Well, that's it then, a solid rise of 1.9% by the close. It finished on the highs too which bodes quite well for Monday. Quite a good day for me overall except that the biggest mover of the day was Djs which I'm short. I'm still quite happy with the position though.

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