Nice day for a harbour cruise. Thu Nov 19

I've just been for a harbourside walk with a few visitors from interstate and overseas. I left them as they hopped on the ferry and being a beautiful day with a gentle breeze I'm beginning to wish that I'd joined them for the ride. It's 11.52 am and the market is up 10 points after a flat to slightly down night overseas. We've substantially underperformed European and N. American markets over the last few weeks and the local market is still in the doldrums.

I sold out the last of my Awc at 169 and 169.5 (v 163.5 and a few at 167). I realised I had another conundrum here, in that it was the first new high after a swing and therefore I should have sold out my first tranche on the close last night. As for the extras I bought, I figured that although I could make a case that they were a separate trade on a breakout and therefore I could run them for longer, it was simpler to just sell them out too. The chart overall is not particularly bullish, if it was then I might act differently. Anyway, I got lucky with slightly better prices than last night's close of 168.5.

Otherwise, my positions are pretty neutral but slightly in my favour.

12.58 It really is a ho hum day with the biggest riser in the top 50 up only 3% and the biggest faller down 2.3%. Apart from these 2 there are only 2 more stocks which have moved more than 2%. The Xjo index is up 4 points, the Nikkei is still suffering and is down 1.5%, but that disconnected from other world markets in September, while the Kospi, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are all up.

Tuesday was the key for the Xjo index. It reversed hard following a bullish lead, having just made a marginal new high. It indicated to me that we would need some backing and filling before confidence could be restored and so far we've had a rally to a lower high on Wednesday followed by further choppy correction. It's shaping up like a mini pennant style correction so, absent any big falls overnight, I would anticipate either tomorrow or Monday we'll get the next kick up.

Looking away from this micro picture, the rally on the daily chart is probably incomplete, it looks more like a pause for breath. However, the little new high just raises a slight possibility that this is all we're going to get.

3.33 The market is still doing very little, it was 10 points down at its worst but is back up 6 now. I realise that I've missed a bearish reversal opportunity in Aristocrat but I'm hoping that if there's a broad rally at some point over the next day or so then I might get another shorting opportunity. Here's the chart. The value of my approach to sell the first swing high after a pullback is highlighted here because I sold out two days back. I was wondering then if I should give it more room but with the benefit of a couple of days more action, it's interesting that with the lower low early this month, the stock has had a fairly standard retracement rally. I missed my chance on the close yesterday but it's a good lead indicator for a couple of my other stocks which are looking similar.

4.20 The index closed up 10 points on another quiet day. Aristocrat is on the horizon for a short, while Bsl and Qan are still edging down but not flirting with levels where I'd stop out. My two short positions, Djs and Tse, went down and Tse, in particular, is really setting up in a head and shoulders formation.