Tuesday, November 17, 2009

What does it take? Tue Nov 17

Overnight European and US indices were firm. Here's a daily chart of the S&P 500 index.
The S&P 500 is broader and more indicative of the market than the DJIA so it's the best comparison to the XJO index below.
We're lagging by quite a distance and the market at 11 am has faded to be up only 20 points despite the strong lead being assisted by gold, oil and base metal price surges.

Fortunately, I followed through with my plan to finish selling out the stocks that had made a new high after a swing against me. The sales were the last of the Cey at 355 (v 328), Fmg at 432 (v 402), Ozl at 130 (v 120.5) and Sgp at 414 (v 385.5). These were all better than last night's closing prices. In addition, I sold out the rest of the extra Ipl from yesterday at 280.4 (v 268) as it reversed after a strong open and a couple of Bsl at 297 (v 290.5). I also started to close out my short in Gff - I missed this yesterday afternoon - buying back about a third at 153 (v 157.2).

Awe has had a choppy rally but it pushed on this morning to a new high so I'm looking to close this out by the close. Usually, I'd want to wait until the close but with the market pulling back I decided to sell some at 282 (v 267).
I bought a small amount of Asciano this morning as it pushed up through resistance. This is more of a 5th wave type trade and I'll probably just look for it to move to the top of the trend channel.
Yesterday, Ost fell as low at 303 after I stopped out for 308 but then reversed to 314. It's up again to 317, has been as high as the breakout level (briefly) at 319 and I'm wondering whether to re-enter on the long side.
11.32 Just gone long Qan at 278, looking for the next leg up.
The market is only up 3 points now.

11.52 Also added to Awc at 167, as it follows the Qan lead. I had sold about half of the position on the run up so I've reinstated a full position.
1.37 The market is on its lows, down 7 points, with the rest of the region slightly soft. Most of my positions are a bit worse although Awc is doing well, up at 171. I've got buyer's regret in Asciano - I'm trying not to take 5th wave type trades whereas, Qan, which is back down at 276, is not an issue for me.

2.50 Down 23 points now and given that we made a marginal new high this morning, it opens up the possibility of this being a lower high on the index. I suspect not, but it did inspire me to get out of my silly trade in Aio at 161.5 (v 166.5). Fortunately, this was for less than half of my usual dollar amount.

3.50 I've bought back the balance of Gff at 154, averaging 153.5 against a selling price of 157.25. The market hasn't managed to bounce much yet but I'm happy enough with the positions I'm keeping overnight. I'll be selling the last of the All and Awe on the match as they've pushed on again. Aristocrat may have more in it but I haven't got much left, otherwise I'd keep half to try for a better price in the morning.
I've been trading this as a reversal but if I'd only just got long with a more traditional 1-2-3 breakout, I'd probably be willing to stay long and wait for a stronger move. I was thinking about getting back to full size on this yesterday and this morning but was put off by the general pullback.

4.14 Out of All at 477 (v 430) and Awe at 281 (v 267) as the market closed near the lows. I also took off a quarter of my short position in Tse at 420 (v 412.5) as it's looking more and more like a trading range.
The Xjo index finished on the lows at 4729.4.

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