Not a good look. Tue Nov 10

Well, I've got very little in the way of shorts on having bought back Sgp and Csr as the market continues to rebound. The US and European indices were up around 2% last night as cheap money and excess capacity in the Northern Hemisphere drives a renewed sense of optimism.
The Xjo seemed to anticipate some of these gains in our session yesterday so we're not up 2% but we're still up a healthy 1.3% or 60 points at 11.10 am. I've done some fiddling about with my positions, some of it signal based and some where I needed to make a judgement call.
The best one was in Fxj which has been a straight reversal but has been grinding up rather than surging. I sold out half of my balance at 169 and half at 167.5 (v 160) and the stock has rapidly reversed to be 160 on the back of some corporate comments. Now that Axa is in play it's not going to suit my trading style so it occurred to me that a good sector equivalent in the right price range might be Challenger. I realised it had made a good buy signal yesterday afternoon so I bought at 392 as there looks like plenty of scope for it to run to new highs especially with the focus on the sector. The analysts came out with valuations around 575 for Axa and the stock has settled around 585-595. I sold out the last half of my position at 589 (v 419) as momentum stalled.

Looking back at Fmg, I realise that impatience got the better of me having done most of the work of waiting after getting in a bit early. Anyway, I bought on the open at 402 and now I'm quite excited about the prospects for this. It's got the look of a big move about it.

I'm not too unhappy about having to buy back the shorts. Sgp was a late entry hoping for a quick burst down for a 5th wave low. Although I had thoughts of using the recent high at 385 as my stop, I decided to pay 378.5 (v 377) since I'd got in relatively late especially since Djs which had a similar chart has rallied right back to its highs and might be a reasonable precedent given the bullishness of the market.

Csr was a much easier decision. I'd realised that it was making a nice reversal pattern over the last few days and off a higher low so it occurred to me yesterday that this is the sort of thing I should be buying. I've waited till today for confirmation and have paid 186 (v 179.5 and a 2.5c dividend I was short).

11.42 I've been in Telstra for 11 trading days and sold out this morning at 325 and 326 for a touch more than my entry price of 324. I was happy with the buy signal and was looking for another swing higher after it started to fall from the subsequent high at 333. Unfortunately, there's no rule that says it has to do this and on this occasion it fell for 4 days right back to the previous pivot low at 317. This was just above my stop and although it has recovered there's nothing very compelling about the rally so I was happy enough to get out, having given it time to play out.

By contrast, Asciano has managed to swing back up after a pullback following my initial buy signal. It doesn't particularly look like a 5th wave high within it's own little swing - it's too choppy for that - but I'm planning to be out of this by the close of trading because it's a reasonable fallback strategy and I don't have a strong counter opinion. I've sold out half of my balance at 164 (v 157). I've also sold about a quarter of All at 466 (v 430), Cey at 342 (v 328) and Ipl at 275 (v 262) as after the opening surge there was always a good chance of a pullback, given that it's the third strong up day in a row. I'm still long about the same dollar value as I was overnight as well, because of buying back the shorts and getting into Cgf and Fmg.

2.18 The market has been pulling back for a couple of hours now. I realised earlier that I might have bought Cgf at a short term peak and almost cut the trade for 389. It's 384 now and although I like the trade, it was an impetuous point at which to buy. I've bought Csr at 185.5 after more consideration. Meanwhile most of the other longs are slipping back with the market. They're not positions I want to close out yet but I'm glad that I've taken some profit here and there.

3.53 Approaching the finish line for the day, we're rebounding slightly. Cgf has recovered from 378 to 385 but another of my day's purchases, Csr, has slipped to 182 so my intraday trading hasn't been too sparkling today. Stockland Group, in which I cut my short earlier, has actually made a small buy signal with a trade at 386 and as it's charting uncannily like Djs, I'm tempted to take it. The price has dipped to 382 so I'll probably wait till tomorrow and buy if it goes through 385 again. My initial thought with this, as it was with Djs, is that there could be a rally which would stop short of resistance at 400. The clue here is that the retracement so far has been quite strong which is not typical of a normal 4th wave. Therefore, rather that over analysing, it makes more sense to simply take the signal and see where it takes me. Preferably tomorrow though as I'm quite full again today.

4.18 A close of up 59 points so pretty steady after the first hour. I think there's more in this, I keep getting buy signals and I'm trying to methodically take each one. This has meant that I've been fully long at a good time so it's been a good solution to allow the signals to direct my positions, rather than having a strict quota of longs and shorts. I've reduced my overall positions slightly - old habits die hard - with a few little sales. The balance of Aio, as planned, at 164.5 (v 157), and a small amount of All at 457 (v 430), Aoe at 411 (v 405), Cey at 346 (v 328), Mgr at 147 (v 143) and Qan at 280 (v 268).

A post script on Lihir (and a rule of thumb for closing out positions) which I sold out yesterday afternoon. It made a minor new high early but reversed to close down 3 at 338, tending to confirm my thought of it being a short term peak.