Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Bear with a sore head. Wed Aug 25

My cold is worse today and I can't really think straight. I'm still bearish and I was hoping for more joy this morning after a decent fall in European and American markets, along with a firmer gold price. Thanks to some decent company reports and the fact that we already fell yesterday, it has been a buy on open sort of day. It's 11.11 am and we're just down 0.5% after opening down close to 1%.
A couple of stocks that I'm short, Asciano and Oz Minerals, reported ahead of expectations. Fortunately, I bought back a third to a half of my positions into some early weakness, because they're both now up on the day. Not big rises though and I see this as gap filling rather than genuine strength so I'm happy to be short overall.
I have bought some Lnc at 150 as they opened in that range I was talking about in the last post. I was very hesitant because they looked pretty nasty, but they have actually turned around quite well. Here's a 30 minute chart.
11.48 The early bounce is losing momentum and we're just starting to slip lower.
Mmx has flattered to deceive and I've stopped out at 151.5 as it failed to hold yesterday's low.

1.36 The market is back around the lows, down 1%. Ozl has weakened again but Aio is holding onto gains. Otherwise, I've been nibbling at short positions, buying a few Fmg at 443 and Tse at 320.
Sbm has made a little buy signal with trades at 31.5. I'm still long this from a few weeks ago and trying to pick up more stock at 31.
4.21 The Xjo index closed down 61 points and at the lows.
Quite a good day for me with gold longs higher and the shorts all lower except Aio which held onto a 1 cent gain. I managed to get some more Sbm at 31 - they closed at 32 - and I bought more Fmg and Qan back at lower levels. Ozl closed down 3 at 120 and I bought half of my short earlier at an average a shade above 122.
Overall, I closed out about half of the short positions by dollar value today but there's still some momentum in the selling so I'm hopeful of better value buying tomorrow.

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