Follow my leader. Tue Aug 24

I've been net short for a couple of days now and have been fretting about whether the Xjo would make a higher low and squeeze back up, which would make life difficult. This is still in the balance as you can see from the chart of the Xjo, below.

However, I'm encouraged by the Dow Jones' chart which has failed to hold the first swing low. It broke support on Friday but bounced back to close above 10,200. Last night, by contrast, it was unable to hold the minor support level and finished on the lows.

With more than an hour of trading gone, the local market is down 28 points, and the election result is still unclear with no favourite emerging, although Labor probably has its nose in front.

My positions are a mixed bag, but broadly in my favour. I bought a few more Mmx at 158 but they have continued to weaken and are down at 155, not far from my stop. So far I'm glad to have been cautious with this one.

Aristocrat reported with a better than expected result and they're up 15. I jumped in early and got a few at 354 which I flicked out at 363 about 10 minutes later in the messy trading immediately following the result. They've settled back to 358 and I thought about buying, but since it's already the second leg in what might just be a retracement rally, I'm holding off for now. If the market weakens further today and this holds up, then I might reconsider. Here's the chart.

11.51 Interesting development in Mmx. As the market continued to fall, it was sold down a tick below support at 154. I was contemplating stopping out when a line of 26 million shares was crossed at 154. After a minute or two, the stock started to firm so I've bought some more at around 156. Judging by the market reaction, I'm assuming that Harbinger - formerly a large shareholder - might have completed their selling, and perhaps, Posco have taken the stock. Regardless, I'm long and hoping for a relief rally. Here's a 10 minute chart.

2.37 The Xjo index broke below last week's low earlier on, although there's been a small recovery since midday. I sold out a few Mmx on a blip up to 162 so my average entry price is reduced now.

Lnc is down 5% today and the next support level could be around 147, which was a swing high in the middle of July. I plan to buy some with a tight stop if the stock gets to the 148-152 range.

4.10 I'm coming down with a cold so I'm happy to get home to bed as soon as possible.

The Xjo finished down at 4381, close to the day's lows and just below the intraday bottom last week. 

Fmg was down 14 at 450, so hopefully that's not going to have another go at the 470s and I might get a quick move down to support around 430.