Monday, August 30, 2010

Worst case avoided. Mon Aug 30

I'm pleasantly surprised by a better than expected performance from the Australian market this morning. The US had a 1.5% plus rebound on the back of GDP revisions that came in above the worst fears of the market but since we had already had a recovery on Thursday and Friday last week, I was wary of a market that might open firm and sell off promptly.
This hasn't been the script at all, and after opening with a gain of about 60 points, we've continued to rally and the market is just below the day's high, up 1.9% or 84 points. I bought back half of my Ipl short on the open at 332, along with the last of the Qan at 253 and the last few Ozl as well, at 122 and 124.
On the long side, Awc went at 172 and 173 along with a couple of other smaller positions than I don't think I wrote about.
I had my eye on Challenger last week. It ran hard on a good result and I've been hoping to buy a resumption of the rally after a pullback. I'm long at 375 with a stop around 358,360. I'm hoping for a quick move to a new high, so around 400.
11.57 It really has been a powerful performance from the Xjo index and changes my view on the next couple of weeks. There's now a strong possibility that the recent correction is over and that the market will retest recent highs around the 4600 mark. We may have done enough for today but on a weekly basis the index has already exceeded last week's high and has probably made a higher low.
2.14 The market's off the highs as Chinese markets are not quite as bullish as the Japanese today and US futures have lost some of their gains. Considering all that though, it's still very strong, up 69 points. I'm seeing potential buys across the board and the number of shorts I'm thinking about has diminished to one or two.

4.23 The market finished strongly and closed up 83 points.
I added another new long in Ost at 291, the purchase is not complete and I might write about it tomorrow if I get the chance to buy a few more on the back foot.
Toll was up up nearly 3% today at 615 so that's looking promising. I sold a couple at 611.

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