Thursday, August 26, 2010

Bell Tolls. Thu Aug 26

I've decided to add Toll holdings to my list of stocks after noticing that they'd reported quite positively this morning. I like the look of the chart but it's been tricky trying to buy because the stock raced out of the blocks with a 3% rise to 600 on the open and quickly took that gain to 7% with a run up to 624.
My plan was to buy on a pullback and that pullback has been quite sharp; so I've bought at 609, 603 and 599 for an average entry price of 605. My stop is below yesterday's low of 576.
The chart made a minor new low in early July since when it has been working it's way up. It was a decent breakout this morning, both on a minor scale relative to last weeks high and also as a range break of swing highs running back to mid June. Admittedly, the stock is right back in the range but the volume and reason for the break were quite significant and unless analysts take a look at the result and decide it's all smoke and mirrors, it shouldn't be long before it's pushing through the top of the range again.
Otherwise it's a reluctant rally for the market with a gain of 15 points at 11.12 am. My short positions are weaker by and large although Fortescue is up 7 at 441. I'd bought most of that back yesterday so I've reshorted a few more at 440 and would look to add more again in the high 440's.
I've also added a new short in Ipl at 332. I'm not thrilled with this one because I had it pencilled in as a short a few days back and I could have got set at better prices. It also looks as though it could still have a go at the highs because it only made a double top and there's a pennant shape. Notwithstanding, the stop isn't far away at around 350 and the downside potential is pretty good.
11.39 Woah! That was slack. I forgot to check my reporting calendar so when Fortescue was suspended for a better than expected report, I got quite worried. I closed out at 447 immediately which was a good thing in the short term because they're up to 452.
Transfield has gone the other other way today and I bought a couple back early on at 308 which was a drop of 10 cents. I've since bought another couple at 294 which is where they are now. Only short a few now.

1.05 Funnily enough, I've reinstated my short position in Fmg at 448. The stock went up to resistance at 454 and subsequently found little support. So far, it's failed to kick on after an expectation beating result so I've got away with being asleep at the wheel during reporting season.
3.17 Went too soon in Fmg and had to cut at 457. Annoying to have to get out so soon although I went long Mmx at 139 on a day trade and sold out at 143 so it paid for the loss at least.
Most other things have gone ok today though. I'm out of the last of the short in Aio at 163 and Tse at 298 while the gold stocks are hanging on to small gains and Lnc is up to 156.
The index ground its way to a gain of 35 points; it's up 26 now at 4346. It could be a touch oversold and with resistance now at 4380, maybe there's another day of retracement. I'm close to square now overall although the longs are skewed to gold stocks. Here's the Xjo chart, 60 minutes.
4.08 Today was a big day for companies reporting and I managed to get swept up in the madcap trading. Mostly it went my way but Fortescue was bipolar and not in a good way. I usually allow a couple of cents on my stops but I was pretty rapid to cut here at 457 only for the stock to fail again. I've gritted my teeth and reshorted at 450. In the end, it wasn't that expensive but unnecessarily intense.

4.11 We've matched out on the high for the day at 4356, up 36 points.

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