Friday, August 13, 2010

Same again, shinier. Fri Aug 13

It's the same story for the trading day again as I'm looking for a bounce off oversold levels and trying to keep my powder dry in order to short after a couple of days of rally. There's a bit more traction to the rally today with the market rising from a flat to soft opening to be up 14 points after 40 minutes with some nice rebounds in the oversold stocks.
I bought a few more Lnc on the open and sold them again a bit higher plus I've sold a few of yesterday's at 175.
The shinier aspect of the day is the overnight rise in gold and though I'm not sure what to make of the gold chart overall, I think the rally has taken people by surprise.
I bought some Avoca resources at 281 on the open but they've already got away, up to 288. However, Pna is still buyable. I got long fairly luckily at 55 on the opening auction in this copper/gold stock and they're up to 56 now but were at 61 very recently and could get there again soon. It's not a clean chart - there's too much overlap - but there's decent short term momentum and there's a lot of love for copper stocks at the moment.

2 pm The rally has gathered some steam leaving the Xjo with a gain of 30 points. There have been some strong performances among the smaller caps in the top 200 index. One of them is Incitec Pivot, which is on my list of potential shorts. It's had a very impressive bounce today and I had a handful of these overnight as an oversold long position. Now, however, the stock is getting quite close to the recent high and I think there's a good chance it won't get past that level. There's probably no rush to short this, the Dow Jones could bounce overnight and even if we've pre-empted it, there might be some follow through on Monday. Anyway, I'm happy to see this recover and I'll look to short it if it stalls.

Having said all that, Ipl is essentially performing well, I'm merely looking for a decent pull back. Something like Fortescue is probably a better short still. It really has struggled to rally over the last month, limping to a slight new high which it couldn't hold. Another one to short in a retracement.


3.42 The market is up 48 points now but my positions haven't kept pace. I'm disappointed that I didn't follow through with my plan in Wsa. I was a bit spooked when it fell right to support at 440 but today it has rebounded dramatically. There was no need to pre-empt this trade, it opened fairly modestly today and I was bullish the market from the open. The one that got away.


4.09 I've got to dash off but it looks as if we're going to finish off near the highs, up about 50 points.
I've bought a few more Linc, laggards, and the 60 minutes looks ok.

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