Beauty contest. Wed Aug 4

When trying to pick the winner of a beauty contest, you don't try to pick the girl you think is prettiest but the one most people will like. I'm thinking about that truism in relation to Linc and the deal, now announced, with Adani. It seemed disappointing to me on the surface with $500 m up front and then $2 per tonne royalties for the first 20 years of production. Supposedly, the NPV of this income stream is $1 bn so the total value of the deal is $1.5 b but analysts think this number could be too high and it will be a few years before production starts. Still, for a young company, having an annuity stream will be important psychologically and for certainty in planning, especially when they've been loss making up to now.
The stock reopens for trading at 11.15 and I'm wondering whether to sell out because the market will probably find it slightly disappointing and it could be a sell on fact scenario. At present, the match price is suggesting a slight gain but that can change dramatically in the next 15 minutes.
One plus point is that the second of the three tenements, and perhaps the best in terms of quality because of the presence of coking coal as well as thermal, is likely to sell quite soon and may be a much more straightforward transaction. If the expectation is that this sells in the next month for around $500 m then that can continue to drive the stock.
Overall the market is down 12 but staying above the top of Monday's range so I'm still looking for it to go higher in the next day or so.
Awe is performing the best of my longs, up 4%.
No new trades with my goal being to reduce positions and take a breather.

11.17 Funnily enough, the early signs are indecision regarding Lnc. I sold out half on the match at 192. It gapped down to 180 and bounced straight back to 190.

12.10 Just about to leave the office for a few hours but the market has fought back to almost square on the day helped by a good trade surplus. Imports were flat too, which bodes well for rate rises (or lack of them) and despite house prices showing some residual heat, the consensus is that price growth has disappeared now.
Awe is still the star. Up 10 now at 172.
Updating that 10 minute chart of the Xjo from yesterday.

You can see that the correction continued through to this morning but found support above the breakout. I'm still hopeful of some near term strength which should allow me to take most of my long positions off.

3.03 The chop continues and the Xjo had another leg down. It's just picking up again but is down 25 points. Once more, it held above the previous congestion.

There's been some sell on fact in Linc but not serious at this point, it's down 9 at 177.

Market heavyweights Rio and Nws report tomorrow which should provide some fresh impetus.

4.12 Close was near the day's low, down 30.

Bit of a nothing day for me, it was good to sell out half of the Lnc - they closed at 174.5 but I wish I'd sold the lot!