Friday, October 8, 2010

Alcoa pleases. Fri Oct 8

There was weakness overnight in gold and base metals as everyone took a deep breath ahead of tonights US jobs report. It has led to some minor falls in the first hour here with the Xjo 200 down 15 points. More to the point from the Australian point of view is that Alcoa reported after trading with a better than expected result. It's still trading 2 or 3% higher in the after hours.
Awc has taken its cue from that and is up 7 at 198, Fmg is continuing to rally too and so I think the nerves have steadied.

11.31 Out of the last of the Western Areas at 660. They're still pushing on but I'm happy with my piece of the action. On the daily, they're roughly back to the uptrend line.















And on the 60 minute chart there's a similar sort of look to it with a potential 5th wave high approaching.
12.35 The Xjo 200 made a double bottom to within a point on Tuesday and then a double top to within a point yesterday. The fact that a lot of the resource stocks are trending hard suggests to me that there's more strength to come as does the way that the index attempted to retrace a couple of times in the last few weeks but was unable to follow through. For today though, in typical Friday fashion, it looks as if we will continue to drift.
12.57 In a similar vein to the Wsa trade, I've bought a few Mml at 533 and 525. I'm hoping to get a few more below 520. The last swing high just above 500 should act as support and there's a strong chance of another look at yesterday's high. Here's the daily.
Because this is another short term continuation, I've included the 60 minute chart too. I'm just looking for a likely spot for the retracement to bottom out.

2.54 We're still hovering around a little below the flat line but have escaped the usual Friday sell down, perhaps because the Shanghai market is quite strong.
Most of my positions are little changed. Fmg is the best performer on my watch list and I'm kicking myself over this one. When I was short this last week, I kind of realised that it was actually very strong but having taken my cut there, I was unwilling to go long. It's moving into an acceleration phase now and if iron ore prices don't collapse then it's actually cheap. Here's the chart. I guess I'll just look for buyable pullbacks now.













4.02 I'll wind up now. Just waiting for the 4.10 pm match and then I'm dashing off to yoga.
A wait and see day before US jobs figures and more company reports.

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