I bought more Lyc at an average of just under 149 as I'd hoped for but the stock is under heavy pressure and is just above support at 142. Be careful what you wish for.
I've stopped out of Pna for a profit at 77.5. I was hoping for a new high, but this may need to have another look at support first. I bought this lot at 74 and would start to buy back in if it got back to that level. There are a couple of broker downgrades over concerns that their costs are rising.
11.34 On Monday I bought some Avo at 308 using a signal from the 60 minute chart. My stop would have been too far away to take a trade if I was to use the daily chart and I was expecting a short term bounce in the gold stocks. At the time I was pre-empting a breakout of 310 while using 298 as a stop. My target was the recent high at 330 and I was hoping for a quick trade. I sold a quarter out that afternoon at 320 and another quarter yesterday afternoon at 319.
I mentioned that I expected the holding time for this position to be short; perhaps a half to one and a half days. Well, it has been two days now but I'm still using the 60 minute chart, it just hasn't completed - or failed to complete - the pattern I was forecasting. At the moment, my stop for the remaining half would be at 309 if it failed to hold the breakout level. At present, I'm assuming that it's in the c leg of an a-b-c correction of the move from 305 to 322.
If the stock gets to 330, or the mid to high 320s, then it might seem silly to have sold out half of my holding below that but my justification is that I find it much easier to be patient with the position if I've taken some profit along the way. It also becomes easier to pull the trigger in the event that I stop out for around breakeven because I know that there's something to show for the trade.
Lynas is still under pressure but has steadied to be back at 146.
11.57 Just thought to have a look at the CPI which came out at 11.30. Slightly better than expected, 0.7% for September cf expectations of 0.8%. The AUD fell close to a cent very quickly and has stabilised at around 98. The reserve bank will be happy, we already have a two speed economy and another rate rise does nothing for that.
1.16 There's been a further recovery in Lynas and it's back at 151. I sold out a few at 152 as I bought some extras. Risky business but the stop was increasingly close! That's about it though, the Xjo is up 2 points and the AUD is back at 97.7.
3.08 The market cracked down shortly after the last update. It's down 46 points at 4642 and just above where I though support might be.
So it's still a difficult market to trade. We seem to have led the Asian markets and US overnight futures down after they were steady to firmer early on. At this point I'm not taking it too seriously. It's the sort of market where you buy after a few down days and sell after a few up days.
I was worried about Lyc as they fell back to 143 on the sell off. They held, at a higher low, and have ticked back up to 147. Otherwise, Linc is down 5.5 at 192.5 but I'm looking at a stop a fair bit lower there, around 180.
4.11 There was a slight rally and the Xjo finished at 4648 with a low of 4641. This was 40 points down.
Not a lot of comfort in my long positions but the damage was mild.
I cut Bsl yesterday and it fell further today, closing at 205. I was thinking about a small buy at these levels given that support is close but the two legs up, in July and then September, were possibly retracements so it's more likely that there'll be a new low soon.
Mmx is one that I'm more interested in buying. It gapped up about a week ago on a positive court ruling. If it wasn't such a weak day, I'd probably have bought some on the close. A stop at 144 is a fair distance away, but the set up would require a third wave which might be expected to be at least as big as last week's 32 cent turnaround and probably closer to 50 cents, giving a target around 200.
Actually, a move of that size is hard to imagine, given how long this stock has been under pressure. Nevertheless, I like the set and would be happy enough with a move above 177.
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