Thursday, October 28, 2010

Murchison again. Thu Oct 28

A late recovery in the US and they finished mixed but gold and base metals were down. Our bipolar market has swung back to optimism and we're back up 1%.
The placement in rare earths hopeful Arafura went off well bid at 120 and it has taken the selling pressure off Lyc. It looks like they've held support above 140 and they're up 8.5 on the day to 154.















Buoyed by that, I'm thinking of buying some Aru as well, they've had more of a retracement and have held support above 124. I did get a few in the placement at 120 and that tells you that the stock did trade below 124 but the freely traded market has held support - grey area I suppose. Anyway, I figure that I can buy a few more in the market but I'm looking for a retracement of the initial bounce.
















Here's the 30 minute for Aru.
I followed through with the Mmx long idea and bought at a tick under 156 which is about where they are now. Stop is in the low 140s and there's a good chance of a quick move above the recent high.
Fortescue has issued $2bn of bonds with more to come perhaps. I don't know if it's going to pressure the stock price too much but I'm looking for a shorting opportunity with a marginal new high having been rejected quite strongly. I'm hoping to get short at about 645 to 650 and the highest it has been today is 640. If I get set then I'm happy and if not, my stop will be too far away for me to be comfortable. Here's the daily.
12.45 Out of Avo now at 309 as they failed to kick on. See discussions yesterday.
2.40 The market has given back about 10 points. Fmg has turned South, down 7 at 621 - that's looking like one that got away. Lynas is still firm, up 10 at 155.5.

4.11 The index didn't do too much in the last hour or so, finishing up 37 points.
I sold a few of the Lynas out at 158 and earlier, bought 15k of Aru at 137.5. Not a great entry which is why I only bought a few and I sold 5k out at 140. The new shares don't start trading until Nov 8.
I'm looking at Pna again. They fell 3 today to close at 73.5. I still think they might find support at 70 so with 68ish as a potential stop, I'm hoping to get some tomorrow at, say, 72.

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