Little dipper. Tue Oct 19

It's not quite a rollercoaster because the market is up 20 points after falling 37, but there's still plenty of indecision around. Last night US indices did pretty well, rising about three quarters of a percent, with commodities firmer and gold recovering from the losses in this time zone to finish up a few dollars. Subsequently, IBM and Apple are weaker in late trading after reporting good results; sell on fact.
Financials are still the outperformers and the gold sector is mixed despite the gold price recovery. The market heavyweight is Newcrest and that's slightly down on the day. It's quite near support and will provide a guide to the rest of the sector.
My opinion is that the a-b-c sell down from 4280 to 4055 is probably a wave 4 correction in the context  of the move which started in late September at 3909. If that's correct then I'd expect a bottom soon and a rally to about 4300 or so.

As for my gold holdings, Avo is continuing to sell down to just above the breakout level at 303. I've bought some more at 308. Pru has steadied and is up 4 while Sbm is unchanged.
Lnc has held support so far and it was interesting to read comments from the Adani chairman who is visiting Australia. His company bought the Galilee tenement and is fast tracking drilling. He's obviously keen to start mining asap and this may be the reason behind the recent strength in Linc. The analyst's report which I read was very conservative regarding the time frame for development of Galilee and had heavily backdated the start of royalties to Linc from the project. He was also working with some cautious production estimates.

2.37 The market is strengthening gradually but it's not racing away, just up 25. The gold stocks are still betwixt and between, holding support but not recovering much.
I'm trying to limit my trading now because while we're in this choppy range, I have very little conviction and from conversations with other traders, it seems as if they're finding it difficult too.
Once the market has made up its mind, it'll be much simpler and in the meantime I'll take it easy.

4.10 All over for the day and the tone of the market is apparent in the way that we sold off to be up just 4 points because US overnight futures are weaker as mentioned earlier. So, we discount the rise which we hadn't built in and fully account for a potential move when the overnight futures are not a great predictor of what actually happens in the US, more a reflection of what's happening in Asia.
It is what it is and it's sour grapes on my part to complain about it because I'm long, despite not being especially bullish.