Broadening top, still lingering. Fri Oct 15

The prospect of a broadening top is still lingering as the Asx 200 finds it really hard to get through 4700. US stocks made a late recovery to close unchanged while European stocks and commodities were a tad weaker. The reaction this morning has followed the pattern of the last week which is to lack a sense of proportion. The index was down about 39 points and has recovered to be 31 points lower.
Gold was up again but most of the gains had already come through in yesterday's Asian trading session and most gold stocks are lower this morning.
I've taken a couple of little hits but I'm sitting with my existing longs for now.

12.23 I'm just watching the market uneasily without doing much. The Xjo has recovered to a loss of 20 points. I'm just going to insert a snapshot of the 60 minute chart. It looks like it has found support short term and maybe there's another tilt at 4700 on the cards but the market is getting harder and harder to trade and I'm looking for opportunities to get out of anything that's not performing as hoped.

2.10 The index has clawed its way back to down 12.

Linc is starting to reward my patience, up 4 at 187 and it has made a minor buy signal as it broke above last week's 186 high. Resistance is at 193 and then 199 which is where it peaked before. The chart has been adjusted because the dividend was classed as a return of capital but it seems like a grey area here. Anyway, if it takes off then the move could be a large one and 199 would be a minor irritant.

2.18 I seem to have magicked Linc up to 193 in a rush. It must be the power of my readership of 3. I talked myself into buying more and picked them up at 189. They're at 192 now and the Xjo is just down 3 points.

3.11 14 of the 17 stocks in the Asx 300 gold index are down today but Avoca is one of the three that's up. Sold a few at 323 earlier, they're up 8 to 326 now.

3.53 It's not news that Linc is in the process of selling the remaining coal tenements and I assume that negotiations must be advanced because the stock has really taken off. Once it got through 199, it quickly spiked to 220 and has settled back at 204. I've just got a weekly chart up to see what levels this rally might reach. Last year's high was 253 (adjusted again, I presume) and in 2008 the 250 level was also quite significant as support so that's the first guesstimate.

I'm trying to remember what the DCF valuation was for Linc after the cash received and income stream from the sale of Galilee was tallied. I think it was about 150 and with shares on issue of 500 million, it's quite possible that a reasonable price - they're talking North of AUD 500 m - for the remaining properties can kick the cash value of the stock up to 250 so that the core business is a free option.

4.10 Asian markets are generally a little weaker although Shanghai is strong again. We've just closed down but only mildly weaker with a loss of 10 points. Linc held the break to close at 205.