Not long now. Thu Jun 9

35 minutes till the May jobs numbers come out. Last month surprised to the downside and forecasts are for a recovery after the flood effect rolls through but with the gloom in the non-mining sector of the economy, the level of confidence in those predictions is low.

The first hour has seen the market recover from early weakness, down nearly 20, to be square or off a few points. The US market was not hit hard but commodity stocks were. Apparently, Interactive Brokers reduced the leverage they offer on Chinese stocks, so perhaps the commodity complex was caught up in that sell off. Commodities themselves were not hard hit, oil was up and base metals, gold were down a bit.

Best news for me is that LNC is up and running again. Back to 320 on a growing sense that the stock has an interesting story, I feel. There's an announcement about drilling for oil in the onshore Ackaringa field in South Australia where they are also looking to scope out coal reserves. There's also talk about more debt funded US oil acquisitions. Here's the chart. A wild ride but clearing away from previous resistance around 300.

11.24 Whisper it... the market is up, 11 points and rising as 11.30 approaches. A good start for my positions in FMG and OST too.

11.34 Growth in jobs but less than expected and part time gains offset by full time losses. It doesn't seem too surprising given the lack of faith in the predictions. The market wobbled and is just up a point now.

It's another piece of supporting data to the no rate rise view and I think it's supportive for the market because the economic slowdown is built in to prices but the fear of RBA overreaction was worrying people.

12.59 The market is holding on to 10 points gain. LNC is also holding at 320 and I think there's a chance of further gains this afternoon. This time I plan to sell a bigger portion of my holding.

1.45 The index is setting up for the obligatory failure to launch. Here's the 30 minute chart, hopeful a-b-c rally but then off a cliff.

 

2.45 Maybe this time it's different! The market pulled out of the incipient nosedive and a rally from here would imply a 3rd wave in the short term, below. It would also be the case that the index had failed to break the previous day's low for the first time since this swing began. Small mercies.

4.13 It's neither here nor there at the closing match with the market finishing up 13 at 4550. Out of some LNC at 319.