It's a good day for the Druids and the optimists with a further 1% plus lift in the market after half an hour following on from similar gains overnight. The Greek no confidence vote squeaked through with a yes after the US closed although the S&P futures are only a tick or two higher so it must have been built into their rally.
The balance of probability is a move back to the top of the trend channel rather than a trend change especially as the Greek parliament still has to vote on the nuts and bolts of the austerity bill which may turn out to be more of an issue than the no confidence vote. A push up to 4600 is only 37 points away and that would be enough for a new swing high and would change my approach back to buying dips. In the meantime, I'm shorting a couple of things on an intraday basis while holding on to minor shorts.
11.44 While the Japanese market has been strong on the Euro-Yen cross moving in favour of Japanese exporters, the HSI has opened with a relatively moderate gain of 0.7% and the Shanghai index is flat. It's helped to accelerate a pullback from the early high so that the Asx 200 has trimmed gains to 37 points.
12.45 So far, the strategy of selling the open to buy back has worked. I've had some joy in BHP, FMG and OSH to pay for much of the loss on the overnight short positions. There isn't too much downside for those positions now so I'm happy to hold overnight while the market is in the trend channel.
The elephant in the room is LYC. I suspected I should cut the last of my short on the close of trade yesterday at 195, which was breakeven for that portion, especially since I'd done pretty well with some intraday trading in that stock. I've let it go a couple of cents past my stop but unlike the rest of the market, it hasn't eased back significantly from the open. I'm tempted to use 211 as my stop, since it's now the most rational level having missed the chance last night.
2.30 Stalemate for the last hour or two as Chinese markets soften and the Aussie market holds the line. I'm out of my last TLS June 301 puts at 1.5, with expiry tomorrow I think I've had my chance with this one.
3.41 The early indicators are for a flat opening in Europe and along with a muted day on Chinese markets, the index has slipped further to 4535, a rise of 26.
I've had an expiry day punt in Computershare. I paid 6, a touch over the odds for the CPU June 900 puts. The stock has been downgraded to sell today (the only sell recommendation, admittedly) and it looks like one of those a-b-c corrections where the c wave is weak. They often fall sharply and I'm hoping that happens tomorrow.
4.16 The index closed at 4533, up 24. CPU closed at 900, the day's low...fingers crossed.
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