Nearly there. It's the penultimate day of the financial year and it brings a strong overnight lead as Wall Street assumed the Greek vote would be yes although it's not due till about 7 pm our time. I think it could be buy the rumour sell the fact especially as the US moves were on light volume. Attention will soon be turning more squarely to the end of QE2 and the US budget position.
The sense I get is that the local players are not so easily satisfied as US investors and will probably sell off the early strength. Nevertheless, it's another day when the Asx 200 should hold above last week's low and there could be a tradeable c wave, at least.
10.45 Well, that's a bummer. RSG started to reverse late yesterday and in early trading. It just came out of suspense and jumped to 111 on good corporate news. Might be time to quit trading a stock that's a haven for insider trading scum. I stopped out at 111.
To be honest, charting is quite a good way to filter for odd moves and the late rally yesterday did raise some flags. I was thinking that someone must be trying to push the stock up for the financial year end and really, having smelled a rat, I could have got out quicker.
Otherwise, the market is up 41 but selling off slowly.
12.09 Once again, the HSI is underperforming the US lead while Shanghai is still having its pullback. The Aussie market just punched up to a healthy day's high of 4531, up 57.
I'm in a quandary because I'm anticipating a choppy rally before further falls, but who's to say that the market can't just keep going. I've got most of my short positions via options but they're not much protection for the first part of a move.
CBA is an example, it's just popped above last week's high of 5137. I was looking for a failure there. I'm long the July 5050 to 4900 put spread at a good level but I only managed to hedge two thirds of the puts. Here's the chart.
12.43 If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I actually went long RSG at 112 after seeing the scale of the buying. It's always been a good potential story and if they can deliver the Syama promise of 410,000 oz at $730 an ounce then a quick guesstimate of $500 per ounce profit comes out at around $200 million. Not bad when the market cap is $530 million and they've got other mines too.
Fortescue is also looking quite bullish now. The stock has reversed after yesterday's breakdown. It now looks like longer term support from May 4th at 593 has held. If this is a pennant correction then there's good upside for the stock. It's still early days, but I'll look for an opportunity to reverse my position there.
3.08 Today is a different sort of session to what we've been having for the last couple of weeks. The market has sat stolidly in the range for most of the day and the recent day trading opportunities have been scarce.
4.12 A funny old day for me. With the end of year coming up, I'm loath to do too much but at the same time the downtrend and the impending completion of QE2 has me bearish. I stuck to holding on to a few shorts via puts and trying to job around intraday There wasn't much to gain from the jobbing because the market was range bound.
FMG finished at 620, the break of 620 was where I was looking to buy stock against my puts so I haven't done anything there yet.
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