Thursday, September 2, 2010

Changing the mix. Wed Sep 2

The rally came along last night and it was as large as I hoped for so that there has been enough fuel for us to go further this morning. With renewed optimism that the world can avoid a double dip recession - perhaps because it's still in the original one - US and European markets put on 2.5 to 3.5% with base metals and oil strong along with the relevant stocks. Gold missed out as a safe harbour wasn't needed.
It was enough to give our futures another jolt and I took the opportunity to sell down gold stocks early, getting out of Avo at 317, Sbm at 36 and half of the Iau at 82.5 and 83. These stocks are holding pretty well but I was keen to take some profit and I'm looking to buy other resource stocks. I sold out of other bits and pieces into the early strength too, some Challenger at 394, Lynas at 106 and One Steel at 298. I'm still long Cgf and Ost.
I'm long a stock outside my usual watchlist, although an old favourite. It's Karoon Gas which has large gas resources and exploration projects but is in a pre-production phase. They're firming this week on an announcement of a farm in agreement in Brazil with experienced international operator Petrobras. Some broker research I've read thinks the stock is worth $8 without any value ascribed for Brazil but it's also weary of the stock because the Browse Basin exploration program (offshore WA) has been dragging on.
So it's a blue sky punters' favourite which relies to a certain extent on drip feeding good news out to the market because it's going to need to raise capital fairly regularly. However, the weekly chart looks very positive and I like the daily too so I'm long at around 680, having bought a couple more at 692 this morning. Here's the weekly.
If I was trading this on a weekly chart, I'd probably have a stop below 630 and a target at around 850. As it is, my stop is around 660 and I'm looking for a quick move to 720 but it certainly has short term term potential to push up to, say, 760. Daily below.

1.27 The market has had a slow and stately pullback from early highs. So far it looks like gap filling and I'm not really doing anything much now.

3.09 This is quite a typical congestion day after the early week strength. We're still up 27 points, but just a leisurely grind back. Looking at the 10 minute Xjo chart, I'm in two minds. There's half a chance that yesterday's high acts as support and we carry on tomorrow and an even money chance that we get a longer pullback as we did on the 30th and 31st of September.
In practical terms, I'm holding on to longs but would only look to add more in any meaningful way if we had a second day down. I'm satisfying my need for some activity with a couple of little day trades which aren't worth writing about and haven't added up to much today anyway.
4.12 Chinese markets are strong again, up over 1% and perhaps that was enough to give us a late lift for a rise on the day of 37 points.
Karoon didn't rally today but held on to 690. The golds also held well.

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