I was keen to get out of as many long positions as I could find excuses to exit. I flicked the last of the Avo at 315 as that was about all I was looking for from the retracement, Awe has been stuck so I sold them at 165.5, Bld was a better exit at 477.4 average after they popped up to a new high and failed to move on. Mmx is one that I'm less convinced about selling but they tried to get through some short term resistance at 190 and met a wall of offers so I sold out at 186 and I'm hoping for a re-entry in the 175 area. If it pops through 190 I might jump back on board for a quick move. One Steel is the last of my sales, out at 313 and again, I can see this going higher so I'll be hoping for a pullback.
With all these sales I felt the need to buy something which might have some zing in it. I went long Kagara Zinc at 72 but even as I bought, I kind of knew I should be more patient. They're back at 70 now and I like them a lot but, with the market easing back, there was probably no rush. My stop is at around 64. My view is that Kzl is at the start of a third wave which should see a decent acceleration.
And I've had a slice of luck this morning in Iau. Because the golds are in play, I'm looking for intraday opportunities in my universe of stocks and I thought that in the short term this had made a higher low and might complete a bullish pattern with a push up to 108. I bought 20k at 100 and a little later they announced a reserve upgrade. The market liked the news and it re-opened at 108 where I sold 5k, followed by a couple more sales at 112 and 117. They're at 118 now and I'm hoping to sell the last 5k at around 122 if it gets there. Here's the 30 minute chart. You can see the run up last Wednesday which consolidated for a couple of days above the break. The recovery started yesterday and this morning was the higher low, confirmed when the stock got through 105.
I'm not particularly looking to gloat, writing about a winner after the fact. I actually misread the strength here, just as I did in Lynas yesterday (it hit 138 this morning). The speed of the reaction stopped me from stuffing up the trade by selling out all my stock at, say, 108-110. What I take from these intraday trades is that stocks are starting to behave as they do in a bull market, particularly in the hot sectors where there's some genuine enthusiasm. In these sort of situations, I probably need to be less cautious than I've been lately.
12.17 Out of Iau at 120. They gapped from 120 to 123 with a small trade but I missed it. Anyway, that'll do.
12.51 Still too conservative, I suppose. Iau got to 126 and are easing back now at 121.
I'm out of almost everything, long Kzl and a few Lnc and Mre. The market still looks ok, if a little extended. We could have another day or two of strength even if my scenario of a short term peak is correct. The Dow Jones chart looks fine and is still 150 points away from resistance.
3.39 All quiet on the Western front. No more trades for me except for some tinkering. The index is up just 14 now.
4.15 Xjo 200 closed up 12 points. It could be firm early tomorrow but I'd expect a tendency to sell off from there.
No comments:
Post a Comment