Monday, September 13, 2010

Plain sailing. Mon Sep 13

The uptrend is still intact and the Xjo has rebounded 42 points after 40 minutes on mild US strength.
Avo has bounced back to Friday's intraday high at around 302-306 and I've sold some out here. Mmx has continued to power and is now up 16 at 190. I sold a few earlier at 182.
I don't really have any prospective trades that I'm planning to hold for a few days. It's a mature uptrend in the market, close to recent resistance so any additional trades are limited to small short term positions.
There's one I've taken, buying Lynas at 125 as a little pennant correction on the 60 minute chart seems to be resolving to the upside. This might pop up to 128-130 later today or tomorrow. I wouldn't expect to hold it much longer.
Just to show how quickly Murchison is moving; in the 9 minutes it took to write the section just above, Mmx bolted up to 193, retraced to 186 and recovered to 188. I don't bother with finding out about takeover rumours but I assume there must be some kind of talk for the stock to be bouncing so hard.

11.19 I might have been overly conservative, I'm out of Lynas already at 130 and they're up at 131.5, showing no signs of stopping.

12.22 The market is strong, higher by 1.1% but I'm conscious that the index is around the swing highs from August and June and the correction high from May. My positions are all longs but the dollar amount of exposure to the market is modest because I'm wary that we could hit some resistance.
My favoured medium term scenario at the moment is for some kind of short term top this week followed by a correction of this last swing and then a decent run up which would take the index convincingly through the 4600-4650 level, perhaps up to 4800-4900. 
12.30 I'm out of Karoon at 718 average today. It hasn't been the excitement machine I was looking for and I'm probably better to stick to my knitting of lower dollar, volatile stocks....like Lyc which has just hit 132.5.

1.44 I'm off to physio later so will miss the end of today's session. The Xjo 200 is up 60 points, helped along by stronger than expected Chinese economic data. I'm seeing a few bullish comments too, although the index looks toppy to me on the day. Here's the 10 minute Xjo chart, a burst up and then a grind from there.
I hope I'm wrong here; I'm still holding on to long positions and I'm going to be away from the screens - which always makes a short term trader jumpy! - although I've left a few offers in my order book at higher levels.

4.18 Back from physio and the market held the line to finish up 55 points.
Before I left the office I bought back the Avo I'd sold early, paying 306 versus a sale price of 304, for a small loss but it worked out as I sold them out again at 311. Just a couple left now and this has covered a fair chunk of Friday's loss in the stock.
Everything else went pretty well too but with the idea of the market getting towards the top of the range, I sold out small parcels of Awe at 167 and Ost at 310.
I did find a slightly longer term position in Mre but didn't buy many because I'm chasing a breakout rather than accumulating into a pullback. Long at 80 and sold a handful on the match at 81.5. Stop is 72ish and it looks quite hopeful for a spurt up.

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