Jaded. Tue Sep 28

The US market had a standard sort of pullback last night, giving back a quarter of the 2% gains from Friday night. The Australian market is in a pretty bullish frame of mind, perhaps taking the view that we've cleared the resistance and we can push on further. The Xjo chart doesn't rule out that possibility but I'm still feeling that the market is in dangerous territory in the short term. My reasoning is that we've have a good surge, a congestion and a pop up to new highs in a ranging market. I concede that the chart has a reverse head and shoulders look to it and I'm bullish in the medium term so there's a background supportive of continued strength. I can feel myself trading stubbornly at the moment so it's a very good thing that I'm off for a few days, I'm definitely jaded.

I suppose what concerns me is that there are no earnings upgrades and if anything, the favoured mining sector may have a few minor downgrades on the way with AUD strength and softening coal and iron ore prices, based on slowing steel production. The main change has been sentiment and I suppose that's usually the driving force in my time frame, but it's gone from extreme pessimism to optimism quite quickly.
I don't think the mild optimism is misplaced overall but it may need a reality check in the short term.

In the interim, I've got nothing left except a few Linc which I'm keeping and a very few Fmg which I'm closing out today. I should have closed out all of the Fmg yesterday and they've pushed up another 7 or 8 today. Having missed the best price on the open, it's just fine tuning now and I'm leaning to some weakness later on.

2.26 Out of Fmg at 519 as it's still well supported. The index is unchanged with Asian markets and US overnight futures also uneventful.
This is my last trading day of the quarter and despite the last couple of weeks being underwhelming, it's been another solid month in a productive quarter.

4.16 The Xjo 200 closed down nearly 6 points on a dull day.
That's it for me until next Tuesday. All the best.