Thursday, September 16, 2010

Spi rollover. Thu Sep 16

The September Xjo 200 futures contract expired today so that December is now the front month. There were the usual huge volumes on the opening but subsequently it's turned into a dreary morning session with some minor weakness - down 10 at 11.14 am.
I ended up buying some Qantas at 264 yesterday which was a half position with the hope of getting the rest at around 260. It's a minor bright light this morning, defying the soft market to be up 7 at 271. Otherwise I'm paying for my haste in Kagara Zinc as it drifts back towards the last swing low.
I'm still long a small amount of Lnc left over from a purchase at 154 a couple of weeks ago. The stock has congested in a very tight band. I may be able to buy more on a break through the high as the lower level of this tight congestion would provide a good stop. Trades at 182 and 183 would be encouraging and trigger a buy signal while a level around 172 would be a comfortable stop.

12.47 It's looking like a market rollover too. The index is down 31 as some of the recent euphoria drains away.

3.14 Just noticed that Boral has had a big turnaround on a renewal of US housing worries. It's now very close to a recent swing low at 461. I think I'll wait till tomorrow though.
The index is down 40 points and I'm feeling more justified about my caution of the last few days. I could definitely have been more cautious about Kzl. It's at 66 and a reminder of why I'd stopped doing these sorts of trades.
4.12 The index has finished 56 points in the red and the Xjo chart shows that the last couple of times we did this at the top of the range, further sharp falls followed. I'm thinking more along the lines of the August sell off rather than the June one but it could still be ugly tomorrow.
With that possibility in mind, I made the best of a bad job and dumped Kzl at 65.5 which is still on support but my plan had changed to selling out on any dead cat bounce so I figure I'm only sacrificing 2 or 3 cents if we steady up tomorrow.
I'm left with a defensive long in Qan and a remnant in Linc which is holding up because they've now got a cash stockpile with more expected to come soon once they sell the other coal tenements.
If there's some early strength tomorrow, I'll hunt around for a short position or two.

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