Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Selling into strength. Wed Sep 15

Gold broke on through to new highs last night on renewed talk about QE and low rates for longer. The gold stocks have responded quite well but have generally just stuck around their early highs. The market was firm early on with the Xjo 200 going one point higher than yesterday's peak. It's chopping back but is up 11. A few stocks on my list have reversed from early strength, eg Aristocrat, Challenger and Intrepid, so it looks like a profit taking day to me. I've followed that lead and sold out of a small holding in Minara at 83.5.
I'm reluctant to put short positions on and I'm not finding much to buy. Qantas is an exception but I'd like to buy later on in the hope that the market will weaken since I've had this on the radar for a couple of days and could easily have bought at 259 or 260. I'm starting to chase stocks and to do too many intraday trades, perhaps because we've been trending hard for a few weeks. Whatever the reason is, I know what works for me and it's entering stocks at my levels.
Here's the Qan chart, a beneficiary of the strong AUD.
1.20 I'm still waiting. The index bounced back to, but not through, the early high. Up 21.

2.44 Well, my caution was unnecessary and the market is up 35.
For all that, there aren't really any missed opportunities for me although Boral has kicked on, so I needn't have got out of that one yesterday. The chart also looks as if it's starting to trend bullishly too rather than just retracing so it's one to watch closely.
4.14 The index finished up 35 at 4661 and is now through the last 3 swing highs. I know I'm looking for a short term top but there's no sign of it yet and I'm still long, albeit cautiously.

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