Thursday, September 9, 2010

Power struggle. Thu Sep 9

The Sydney Morning Herald has a front page story concerning mass shutdowns of Chinese steel mills as a dramatic energy saving and pollution cutting measure. Supposedly this may cause short term reductions in demand for Australian iron ore and increase demand for steel. It doesn't seem to have had any impact on local iron ore stocks so far today - it's 11.20 am - but I have gone long One Steel anyway.
It rallied through the previous swing low last week, trading up to 303 but fell back this week. I felt confident that the break of that swing low indicated some short term strength so I was looking to buy on a pullback. I could have bought yesterday but waited and went long this morning on the open at 290. Stop is around 276 and there's a good chance of a swing up through 303 now, perhaps to 320ish in the short term.















Challenger disappointed yesterday with a fall which broke the lows of the previous 3 days so although it has rallied back this morning, I've sold half out at 398 which was my entry level.
















I'm also out of Ipl for a small profit at 353 because it has lost all momentum.
Best performer today is Karoon, which has reversed sharply to be up 5% at 699. It went close to my stop yesterday but now looks ready to motor. It has been helped along by an announcement of plans to list the Brazilian assets on the Brazilian exchange and retain majority ownership.















Like Karoon, Awe is starting to break out too, up 3 now at 166 and clear of the recent congestion.

11.34 Oh, and the market is up a strong 1.1% with good gains across the board.

1.42 The market has given back a few points but we're still up 40 points. Boral has eased back to 466 and I'm thinking of buying a few more at a better level here. Haven't done anything yet though.

2.49 I've had visitors to lunch today and I notice I've missed a chance in Boral in the low 460s, back to 468 now. The market is up 30 so continuing to ease. I sold out of the balance of Challenger earlier at 402 and some Mml at 458. Otherwise, the rest of the positions - still just longs - look fine.

4.14 At the finish, the index had started to run back up and was higher on the day by 45 points or 1%.
Awe, Kar and Ost finished quite strongly. I nibbled at a few Avo on the close at 320 as they pull back from a short term high.

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