Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Fashionably late. Wed Sep 21

David Jones has reported a few weeks after the season closed. I noticed the possibility of a sell signal in the stock before the market opened and the profit announcement took me by surprise. I've shorted a few so far at 512 average although the stock has bounced back to 515. I would have liked to sell closer to the opening price of 523 but I wanted to gauge the reaction to the result. It's a worse fill but at least I was trading on better information, in that the sell signal was confirmed.
Assuming that it doesn't reverse back up once the analysts have gone through the entrails, then I'll try to sell a few more. Here's the daily.













The overnight session in the US brought news from the Fed that they are still considering quantitative easing despite better (less bad) economic news recently. The index jumped on the announcement then reversed to close flat. Meanwhile, the Aussie market has been indecisive for most of the first hour but has started to lean to the bullish side with a gain of 12 points.
I was tempted to nibble at some of the gold stocks which were sharply lower yesterday, but although a couple of them have bounced, there's very little enthusiasm to bid them up. The game may be over for the time being.
With this lack of interest in the punters' favourites, I decided to tip out the Murchison long from yesterday at 179, for a small loss. It wasn't a deep enough pullback to give me a lot of security so when it failed to run after yesterday's opening strength the case for being in this was much reduced. I didn't feel the need to wait for a stop to be hit.















The market is showing signs of increasing intraday strength and I may have pulled the wrong rein here. Nevertheless, my strategy is to be cautious and I'm not convinced about this one.

12.30 The market has drifted back to be up 7 points with Asian markets narrowly mixed and US overnight futures up about a third of a percent.
Retailer David Jones is weakening again and I completed my selling at 512 with the stock now at 510.
Fmg has chopped back up to 491 and Awe to 160.

2.20 The index is on the highs for the day, up 0.5% but the rally hasn't really caught fire. Just as well, I'm short now, although I'm starting to look at a long position in uranium miner Paladin. This has been bottoming slowly over the course of this calendar year. It made a marginal new low in July relative to February. A decent rebound back above 400 was encouraging and now it's showing signs of having completed the retracement of that move. If my scenario is correct then the rally in late August/early September was wave 1 of the next move. That would imply we've had wave 2, forming a higher low, and we're in the early stages of an acceleration up.
I'm not necessarily super convinced about this one but I can use the recent lows at 368 and 365 as the basis for a stop and an acceleration could easily push the stock to around 400. I'm trying to get set at 377.

2.37 Ok, there's some kind of bug with getting the Paladin chart up. I'll insert it later.
It would be nice to have a new theme for my trading stocks and I can that the market might begin to look elsewhere if the recent favourites lose momentum.

2.39 I was looking over at Australian Uranium investing (there's a link) and he's got some great widgets. I'm going to have to find some good ones for this blog.

2.51 Finally...and long a handful at 377.




4.17 Most of those gains ebbed away and the index finished up 8 points. In no man's land; above support but having lost the recent momentum.
My positions didn't treat me particularly well with Awe and Fmg both squeezing up about 2%. Djs stayed weak though, while Pdn slipped lower to 375.

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