It's 12.15. It's been one of those days and weirdly, not entirely unexpected. Although I had 5 positions last night, it was really just the one trade and when the US market rallied with gold falling that trade went against me.
I've been on the verge of closing everything out a few times over the last week and it would have been the best thing to do. Having said that, we've rallied 2% after the US indices were up 3% and the Europeans 2.5% last night. It's plausible that we'll fall from here as the rally seemed technical after the big falls last week. In the context of the charts, I was looking at the potential for a further choppy rally before some more weakness. Now we've had some strength I have to assess whether this is actually something more than a choppy rally. It's always the hard part - it's one thing to decide to hold on to your positions in the event of a minor move against you - it's another thing to do it when it actually happens.
For the moment I'm continuing to assume that this is a retracement rally which will have no legs. Here's a 60 minute chart of the spi.
So far the rally has filled the gap formed on Thursday morning and stopped short of Wednesday's lows. If the spi stays below about 3840 then this is probably a time to add to shorts rather than cut them.
I've done that in cba and qbe. I've bought more June 3500 puts at 91 in cba and May 2050 puts at 28 in qbe as they both ran pretty hard early. In the case of cba, the stock has pushed back up into a trading range and I'm pretty neutral on it now so I'll probably look to sell these out again. In mqg and qbe, the rallies don't yet look significant, in a similar fashion to the chart above of the spi.
Gold fell last night after the rally could never really gain any momentum. I'd felt for a few days that my positions were wrong but I'd fallen in love with them and sometimes love hurts. Anyway, I've squared up lgl by selling the last of my stock at 297 (v 303) and shorting at 295 against my June 325 calls. Ncm looks weak. I was looking at a scenario of a 5 wave move with the correction since late April being a corrective 4th wave. However, it's gone on too long and is starting to overlap the top of the 1st wave which is 2938. I've sold stock at 2944 - first of all to hedge my May 2959 calls and then to take my overall position short.
2.58 Bought a few more qbe May 2050 puts at 20 for an average of 24 on the day. Stock was briefly at 2134 but back to 2106 now, still up 4% on the day.
3.27 Have unwound the lgl position selling out the June 325s at 6.5 (v 11.5) and buying back the hedge for 294 (v 295).
4.11 The market closed up 2.2%. The range was very narrow all day as demonstrated by the 10 minute intraday chart below.
I sold out the extra 91c options in cba at 87 along with a couple of mqg puts I'd bought for 175 at 110. Also squared up ncm, buying back the extra stock at 2950 as it closed back in the range.
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