Justified caution. Tue May 12

1pm Yesterday's hesitation was justified as US markets gave back roughly what they'd gained in the previous session. Banks were particularly weak as investors focussed on the headwind of the prospect of new equity issuance and things being less bad than feared is not the catalyst it was. We've fallen 55 points (70 at the worst) but it looks like the market may drift up as the day goes on given that we started to fall yesterday.
My positions are mixed. Ipl is now up at 252 though I did sell a small amount at 241 (v 232) early on. Lgl is also up 5 at 307 and is starting to gain momentum. Lnc is down 8 at 226 and has been as low as 215. I've decided to cut my position and so far have sold some at 224 (v 248). Fortunately, I didn't put on a full position as the stock didn't ever break out strongly. Mre is also weaker along with most of the resources sector but is not at a point where I'd stop out.
Fmg is my worst stock, having fallen 18 to 289 after the surge y'day. This was precipitated by the news that the company would not list in Shanghai in the near term along with a couple of broker downgrades. I think it still looks promising chartwise and it was interesting to see that Southern Cross Equities have said a short squeeze may be imminent. Apparently, the deal with Valin may mean Fortescue need never issue equity again and only 2.1% of the company is owned by local institutions now.
My short position in qbe has fallen in line with the market, down 37 at 2125.

1.37 Sold out of the balance of lnc at 225.

The market is a conundrum now. There's a clear change of sentiment and loss of momentum but just a pull back from a high.

My instinct is to want to make a decision on where I think this will go. But really, I've got a few positions where I have a degree of conviction and that's probably enough.

I'm losing that conviction in ipl because the last few days have been volatile where I was looking for a strong clear up move. However, I've sold out of half my position and will keep the rest for the moment.

2.49 Sold out of the balance of ipl at 248 (v 232) because of my indecision and because I wanted to replace the position with Paladin, pdn. Here's the daily.

It's a momentum trade really. There's been a bullish consolidation over 8 days and I think the stock will push on to new highs. Here's the 60 minute chart; the consolidation high on May 5 was at 467, I've just bought at 468 after some trades at that level.
4.10 The market closed towards the top of the range down 49 points. No further changes to my positions. Pdn closed at 470 and ipl at 242 so in the very short term I'm pleased with that switch.