Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Take a deep breath and count to 10. Tue May 5

After the buying panic yesterday in Australia and especially in China, the US rallied strongly as well. We carried on first thing to be up 60 points but fell back to square quite rapidly. It's 10 to 1 and we're now up 13 points.
The main winner is the energy sector while the leaders outside that area are pretty flat. I've continued tidying up. I sold the balance of my puts in anz for 91 (v 166) and bhp for 71 (v 133). Csl was weak and because I'd slightly overhedged the fall left me short. I took the opportunity to unwind, selling out my June 3300 calls for 200 (v 192) and buying back the same amount of stock at 3345 for a further 75 c gain adding up to a windfall profit. Tcl is back down and I've reallocated the position to neutral (lottery ticket in the bottom drawer) and the same with wpl which has rallied further with the energy sector. Qbe is down and looks weak - for the moment it's not significant but another day of weakness could mean it becomes a bona fide position. I've been legging out of my mqg spread, I sold it a few times at 30 compared to a value of 15/20 but it's small potatoes really.
I sold out my two genuine long positions soon after the opening. Kzl at 125 (v 90) and srl at 177 (v 163). At that point I was left with my minor positions and nothing else. So I ran through the top 50 and the materials and energy sub indices for the top 200. I found a few to watch fairly predictably in the resources sector. These are ago, lyc and pan. I'm also looking at mig - toll roads.
So far, I've bought Lynas Corporation, lyc, at 44. Lynas is a rare earths producer. These are going to be in great demand for batteries for electric cars. China actually produces a lot of its own rare earths and Lynas had been struggling for finance. Last Friday China Nonferrous took a 52% majority stake at 36 c and agreed to provide additional funding. This lifeline will enable Lynas to complete their Rare Earths Project. The stock gapped up on the news and consolidated for a day or two. I'm looking for another acceleration up. Here's the 60 minute chart.
The weekly chart suggest that if we get through November's high of 50 then the next resistance level would be September's low of 60.
2.48 Very little is happening as the market chops around. I've nibbled at pan and bought some stock at 172.5 but it's drifted back a touch. The weekly, below, shows that the stock is very near to recent highs and a break out. I'm trying to fine tune my entry as the breakout level is 177.5.3.08 Jobbed some wpl stock to cover part of the day's loss on the residual puts.

4.00 Added to pan to average 173 but still only bought about half of my target quantity. Slightly surprisingly, given some weakness into 4pm, mig has held up and I've bought ahead of the 4.10pm match out at 139.5. The daily chart shows a buy signal triggered today after a shallow correction from the high in late March. The 30 minute chart shows the stock gapping up today and then having a bullish correction intraday where the second attempt at a sell off was weaker than the first. I've bought on confirmation of that strength and I'm looking for a quick run up to March's highs above 150.


4.11 The match out was a bit soft and the xjo finished with a gain of 7 points. I'm left with longs in lyc (sold a few at 47.5 v 44) and mig. I hedged a bit with pan as the close was unconvincing and sold out some at 173, my entry price. Hopefully, it will trade through 177 tomorrow so I can buy more, rather than gap through. It may need a more extensive correction first.

The value of my option positions is negligible now except in qbe where the stock finished on its lows and could give me a windfall in the next day or so. A pretty good day overall and I'm happy to have a focussed book.

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