Monday, May 4, 2009

May the Force be with you! Mon May 4

It's a very forceful day on the Australian market today with the xjo having made a new high this morning despite only a modestly bullish lead from the US. I went home Friday pretty uneasy with my positions and my gut has proved correct as my put positions have mostly dwindled away. One of the worst has been in wpl where the traders' prerogative to change my mind has proven expensive. Still, my smaller cap positions have performed pretty well and taken most of the sting out of things.
I was reading a self-help book over the weekend and one of the points which I found interesting was to ask yourself what you really like about your work. My answer is that I really like to have a few very focussed positions, to pick a short term move and to get out. As it happened, at the close of trading on Friday I had positions in 13 different stocks whereas my ideal would be 3. Admittedly, mqg was a small left over spread but that still left 12.
Just after April option expiry I reduced my book to 3 positions and that kicked off a good little run only for the portfolio to get bloated again, since when I've given back some of the gains. With that in mind I sold out of ago at 138 (v 134) and riv at 489 (v 466). I added to kzl at 99.5 (and sold a few of those at 104.5) and I sold a few srl at 172.5 (v 163). I decided that csl had had its run for the moment and hedged my option position near the low of the day at 3420.
That leaves me with longs in kzl, ozl and srl which feels about right as there are few obvious sell signals now. In the neutral basket - essentially just old positions with little risk that I can ignore - I've now got csl, mqg and tcl. Tcl because the position is just a few cheap June 450 options.
The short positions - all puts - are my problem. I'm inclined to close them out, or in the case of wpl, to go long but I was waiting and hoping for a pullback which hasn't happened. Given the element of squeeze today it's probably unlikely to happen and I'm going to need to bite the bullet at some point. In the case of qbe which has rallied another 4% today, I'm so wrong that I may as well keep the positions which won't do much more damage.

1.03 I'm out of ozl now at 79.5 (v 74.5) as it fails to kick on.

3.30 Kzl is up on its highs now. I sold some of the extra stock I bought near the open but will leave the rest overnight as there's a good chance of another kick. Here's the daily.
3.54 I bought back the srl I'd sold at 174, including a touch more stock, as it's had a bullish correction and could gap up again tomorrow. Here's the 30 minute.
I sold out half the anz puts at 115 (v 166) and half the bhp puts at 92 (v 133). I cut the rio puts at 220 (v 333) and have left wpl as the puts are trading at 47 with a month to run. I'm confident that the stock looks good now but there's half a chance there'll be a pull back in the next day or so. I'd like to buy stock and keep the puts as cover.

4.18 Probably should have completed selling puts in anz and bhp but the market ran away again to close on its highs. I'm left with longs in kzl and srl and a half position in tcl which ran enough to make the june calls a bit more meaningful. I have a few small put positions left in anz, bhp and wpl. I'm now bullish all 3 of these and didn't act quickly enough to dump the puts early. With the market up 3%, most of Europe closed and accordingly the US likely to be thin; there is a chance of a retracement. Otherwise, csl and mqg are neutral and qbe is pretty much out of the picture for now.
I'm glad to have tidied up today and want to keep things focussed from now on. Thanks to kzl - up 28 or 31% - I was nearly breakeven today.

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