Too much paper. Mon May 18

Markets are starting to fold as the issuance of new shares continues. The US fell about 1% and at 2.12 pm we're down 1% also. I had a late start today but most things have traded in a tight range so far. It's neither bullish nor bearish: if we were in a strong rally phase the market would have shaken off early weakness and been square or up by now and, on the other hand, we haven't capitulated either.

My feeling is that there's more room to move on the downside and it's probably a pretty common view but after a powerful rally there's not a lot of enthusiasm to chase the market down. My book is looking better today. I'm out of fmg at 256 (v 270) as it failed to hold my stop level of 260. Otherwise the two golds are slightly stronger while cba, mqg and qbe are down.

I'm planning to reduce the position sizes as the xjo index has moved to support.

3.21 Not a lot to add, the market is still down about 1%. I sold out a couple of qbe May 2050 puts at 69 (v 80) and the extra mqg May 3400 puts from Friday at 155 (v 116). I tend to like quick results but at the moment my positions are going my way but only mildly.

For example, cba is struggling to hold support overall and has lost all momentum but for today it has actually held quite well so I'll have to wait and see before I do anything here.Macquarie had a big bounce back on Friday but has fallen back again today. I'd love to see it slip below 3300 because I think it would then gap down but for now it's quite possible it finds support at a slightly higher level than last Thursday and attempts to rally again. I would expect it to fall if it had this second rally but I'd much rather it fell simply and directly.Qbe has a stronger short term downtrend than the other two but again it is above the lows of last Thursday and therefore could hold and rally again also.

4.16 The market was steady through to the match at 38 points down with lgl and ncm up on the day, cba down in line with the market, qbe down a bit more and mqg my best performer having fallen 3%.