When my kids would play tag with me they used to claim that they were "on bar" anytime I got close to tagging them. I'm hoping that the markets are looking to their own safe havens and specifically, that the traditional one, gold, will run. So far it's looking hopeful with spot gold up about $10 last night and a further $3 in Asian trading this morning. Lgl has confirmed a weekly breakout while Newcrest, ncm, looks set to follow.
The pivot high, 2 weeks ago, was at 310 and the stock is trading at 311 having been as high as 313.
I like the daily chart a lot. It looks like it will accelerate - maybe a quick move to the low 340's.
I've bought May 2959 calls in ncm at 148 and 151 as I think Newcrest is doing much the same as Lihir but is lagging slightly. Here's the weekly.
The daily shows that although ncm had a pullback from late April until yesterday, it was choppy and (if finished) stopped well above the early April low.
I've also done a bit of tinkering. I sold out of the last of my fmg at 289 (v 269) as I thought it might need to pull back some more. It has been to 283 since. I also sold out of pdn at 469 even though it's solid - now 471- in a market that's down 28 points. This is because I wanted to make room for ncm which I have a clear medium term view on, while pdn is a short term momentum trade. I've also got back into ipl. Yesterday afternoon's weakness was a blip, US fertiliser stocks were strong last night and this is starting to confirm the range break. I was worried that it was just a slight range extension which would snap back down. Entry price is 252.
2.18 Just bought back into fmg at 291 as it seems the retracement might be over. Here's the 30 minute chart.
Within a minute or two it's up to 295 so looking hopeful.
My fiddling around between ipl and pdn hasn't been quite so good as pdn has worked up to 276 while ipl fell then rallied to be at 251. I'm beginning to think I could be long both but I don't want too many positions, especially when they're mainly long and the market rally is looking tenuous.
3.46 I've been short qbe for a while via puts. Initially, it was a trade where I was looking for a break of 2000 only for the stock to surge above 2200. I left the puts as they'd lost a lot of their value. I tried again with some June puts thinking that that the rally would stall below the old support just above 2200. This seemed to fail too but yesterday the stock confirmed a lower high and today, after a strong open, it's reversed to be down 2.5%. I'm not sure what my target is - 2000 is support - but I'll stay short and play this by ear.
4.15 The market consolidated today, the xjo finishing down 21 points. On the match I sold a few fmg at 294 (v 291), some ipl at 256 (v 252) and tipped out some extra lgl I bought earlier for breakeven at 310. This was to reduce the overall risk of my positions. I'm long fmg, ipl, lgl, mre and ncm and short qbe. Fmg and mre are the most short term of these positions and if I become concerned that the portfolio is getting loose I'll cut these.
No comments:
Post a Comment