Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Good bank, bad bank. Wed May 6

The Aussie market is down 18 points at midday as the market pauses ahead of the results of the US stress tests of their banking system with the suggestion that as many as 10 of 19 are to be required to top up their capital base. While the UK played catch up with a big rise after having their May day holiday, the US was treading water.
Lyc continued to surge on the open and once momentum stopped I got out at 52 and 52.5 (v 44) as so often the morning sees a temporary high. Pan, my part position, pushed through to new highs but unconvincingly so I sold out at 179 (v 173). I added to my position in mig at 142 but then sold the additional stock out at 144.
The new position I took was to buy Suncorp. They've had their own internal stress test and decided to separate themselves into a good bank and a bad bank. The object of the bad bank is to create a vehicle to run down troubled assets and to make the retail and agribusiness parts of the company more attractive to potential buyers.
In a similar fashion to mig, there's been a slow retracement from a high in late March/early April and given that the market is probably very short this stock I jumped in on a strong 60 minute chart and paid 602. It's slipped back now as the market accelerates down, 15 points in the last 7 minutes, and is trading at 597. Here's the daily.
The 60 minute chart shows the break above a recent high of 600 so I hope there's short term strength ahead.
12.12 The market is now down 35 points and as qbe slipped through yesterday's low I bought a few more June 21 puts at 96, to take this into a full position. I'm hoping for a move back into the 2000-2100 range. 1.28 The market has stabilised to be down 21 points but I'm a little cautious and have cut the rest of my mig at 142 (v 139.5). The stock had the opening surge I was looking for but there hasn't been much follow through buying. Just long sun and short qbe right now.

3.20 I've scanned through quite a few stocks today and one I keep coming back to is Lend Lease, an international property development group with code llc. The weekly chart has congested bullishly.
The daily chart has held well over the last 5 days with a recent high of 735. I've now bought a few at 731.
I'm looking for a break of the recent highs and an acceleration towards 800 in the next few days. The only problem with this stock is that it's become illiquid in recent years so I'll reduce my final position size in this. Turnover today is less than 300k despite it being a top 50 stock and a famous name in the local market.

4.14 The market closed down 23 points with qbe hovering above 2155 support at 2169. Sun ran in the afternoon and I sold a few on the close to cover costs at 610 (v 602). Llc had a buyer on the close which pushed a thin market up. I sold a few at 739 (v 731) but I'm reasonably happy that the first level of 735 has been broken.
Of the stocks I sold, lyc and pan went nowhere while mig firmed up to close on its highs. I thought about buying back in but was comfortable enough to have moved into llc and sun.

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