Friday, May 29, 2009

Yo-yo. Fri May 29

The last day of the month and the yo-yo market continues as we're bouncing off the bottom of the trading range to be up 48 points at 12.15pm. The US markets rallied after the 7 year bond auction was well supported especially since there had been good figures early suggesting that their economy is rebounding. Oil and base metals were up and so was gold.
I've had the opportunity I was looking for to buy some Woodside Petroleum, Wpl. I think that the stock might have completed a 3 wave correction and made a buy signal for the next move up above the recent highs of 4594. I've bought stock at 4335 and some June 3400 calls at 130.
I've also bought stock and options in Newcrest Mining, Ncm. It is resuming its rally after a little trading range.

I've bought the June 3282 calls at 140. With both this and Wpl, I'll probably sell out some of the stock fairly quickly. The weekly for Ncm is quite encouraging and I'd like to see a run up towards 3600.

Elsewhere, my longs in Ipl and Lgl are up but so are my shorts in Cba, Mqg and Qbe. I've hedged my Qbe position as it rallied back through yesterday's high at 1935. I also got some stock at 1915. I'm watching this closely as it still seems under pressure and I might get rid of my stock hedge later.

Cba has rallied 2% but has not triggered any stops. Mqg, like Qbe, has traded above yesterday's high; by quite a long way in fact. Given that there's a 5 wave look about the fall, I'm tempted to square this up. The intraday chart looks pretty good. Here's the daily first.The 60 minute chart shows a sell off from the opening surge, a consolidation and now some tentative strength.1.13 Sold out Mqg June 3000 puts at 115 (v 153) as I'd like to cut the Macquarie short position. It's proving difficult to sell the June 3200 puts for a reasonable price so I'm wondering whether to just hedge them with stock. Since I think the trend is down and I might get a chance to short it after a retracement, this could be a convenient way to go. As I write this, the stock is starting to rally so I've quickly paid 3160 to get my hedge.


1.27 My book is skewed bullishly now. Long gold and oil and Ipl, which is in fertiliser and explosives so correlated with the resource sector. I've hedged two of my financial shorts with Cba the only one left. The xjo index is shaping up more bullishly. I think it's most likely to form a head and shoulders here but even that bearish scenario could still see an interim push towards 3900.
4.05 I have to race off shortly but the market has rallied all day. Cba kicked again but this is the one I decided not to hedge (unfortunately!) as overall it looks to me to be early on in a trend.
Otherwise, I bought more Ncm June 3282 calls at 132 to take my average to 136 and have been selling stock at 3290 into a late rally. The rest are flat.

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