Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Ho hum. Tue May 26

It's 1.20 pm and the market is following the script to be little changed. On closer examination there is a bit more to it with financials continuing to trend lower. My best position today has been qbe which is back at major support around 2000. Having had an earlier 3 wave rally off this low I expect it to fail this time. I've got June 2100 puts which I want to hold on to but I also added to a residual May 2050 put position when the stock was higher, buying extras at 24 and 28 to go with the original 80 c purchase. I've sold out half of these at 49 as there are only 2 days until expiry.
I also sold out a small amount of my Cba June 3500 puts at 178 ( v 131) as it hit support around 3400 early on. It's bounced since then and is now at 3443 down from a close last night of 3480. Meanwhile, mqg is off its lows but still down 28 at 3100 while in sto I've sold out of my June 1414 puts at 57 (v 50) as I never got on a full position here and because the financials have fallen hard so that my overall short positions are now quite large - so something had to go.
On the long side, lgl has recovered to 322 while ipl and mig are fractionally higher.

3.40 The big mover today has been cba which is now up 30 at 3510 having been 3396 earlier in the day. I'm glad I sold some puts at the 3400 level but I wish I'd sold them all because I could have reinstated my position 50 c cheaper!
I'm happy to stay short because the stock is still trending lower overall. The pattern we've had - the market down 23 y'day and up, so far, 36 today - is typical of 2 day periods where there's no lead from the US. ie A gentle trend one way only to reverse the next.

3.55 I bought a few mqg May 3200 puts earlier at 135 and the same number of stock at 3094; essentially this is the equivalent of buying May 3200 calls. I did it that way because I'm hoping for a quick run up so I can then sell out the stock, having subsidised the May puts. Also, as a partial hedge for my June 3200 puts which are going down as the stock bounces back. The stock made a potential intraday buy signal earlier which is close to confirmation now.
4.14 Mqg ended on its highs confirming the little buy signal. Cba also closed up at 3545. I bought a few more June 3500 puts at 112 as there is a lot of resistance between 3550 and 3650 so I thought the risk/reward was pretty good. Qbe was one that didn't reverse wildly although it did rally off its highs. The market behaved as if it was a short squeeze, finishing up 51 points. The Dow Jones looks weak having failed to rally much after a big down day last Wednesday so I suspect that any rally would be small. My logic is that our tendency should be either to sell off immediately on a weak lead or sell off fairly quickly after the open if the lead is mildly bullish.

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