Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Austar revisited. Tue Sep 15

I haven't done too much so far this morning as the market is up 31 points after the first hour. So I thought I'd revisit Austar which I headlined on Friday September 4 and then sold after feeling that my entry point was substandard.
You can see from the chart below that it has been a good performer over the last week, one of the best in the top 200.I actually feel better about my trading after examining this again. My entry point was a bit impatient and I probably would have stopped out at about 107 when there was a black bar 7 days back. The big mistake was not to buy the break above 110. It was the obvious entry point, the surge from 96 had paused and it had been a significant level throughout August. The positive I can take from this is that my stock selection is pretty good and I should trust it.

11.20 The rally has been sluggish today and the effect of the rebalancing is possibly weighing on
the market. I have had to cut my short position in One Steel at 332 (v 325). It was high risk but the stop was close so I took the trade.

I would love to have seen this trade below 321, the last lower high, but it held yesterday and could now push up to a minor new high.

Australian Infrastructure is up to new recent highs this morning and it looks like a stock in acceleration mode. I bought Iof in preference to this last Friday but after an inside day yesterday I've got another buying opportunity here. Bought some at 164.

1.50 The early gain of 55 points disappeared and the market retraced 50 points. It has stabilised somewhat to be up 14 points and the rest of the region is similarly placed with US overnight futures slightly lower. I bought a few more Aix, averaging 163, but the stock is only just recovering after losing those early gains. It's 158.5 now. I don't have much to do as I've got a full book and none of the positions require action. I can't see anything compelling enough to switch into either.

4.19 I waited until the close to buy some Mah at 68.5. It looks like a trend resumption after the pullback. I expect it to peak pretty soon so this is a short term trade.

I also bought a few more Iof on the close at 61.5 as they resumed their rally today and made a new high.

I had the same frustrating experience in Aix today as I did yesterday in Lgl where there was a complete reversal with the stock closing right on support at 156. Unlike Lgl, I've decided to hang on to the position because it is on support and has been making new highs. With Lgl, there was always the risk of a lower high.


Overall the market managed a gain of 9 points, presumably fighting the headwind of the FTSE rebalancing into Korea.

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