Monday, September 7, 2009

Gloomy Monday. Mon Sep 7

Despite a positive end to the week in the US and Europe the Australian market is resolutely in the doldrums. We're up 12 points at 11.32 am which is 20 points away from the early high. It's hard to get too critical about the action because the market has been losing momentum for a month now and the set up looks mildly bearish. On a shorter term level, I think the selling is overdone as we've got the rest of the day to go and the intraday charts for US markets look ok. So, I'm playing it cautiously and selling some stock but I'm not willing to sell out everything yet.

So far, I've sold out of Lynas at 73 (v 62) as it has had the quick bounce back to the old high but there is some hesitancy here. I've also sold out the Aio for square at 160 because I jumped on the momentum and it's stalling now. The other sale is in St Barbara where I sold the second tranche of stock - a third of my position - at 27.5 (v 25).

I've added a new position in Trans Pacific industries at 157. This is a fast moving chart and I'm trying to buy a resumption of the rally. My risk is that the pullback is more complex and I'm buying a retracement high. I paid 158 and 156 before the stock fell back to 152 but it seems to have stabilised in a soft market so I'm hopeful that there's some real buying interest here.

1.18 The Xjo index is up but still scraping along the lows of the day despite other regional markets having opened and consolidated positively.

2.28 I've been watching MacMahon holdings today and I was tempted to buy some about an hour ago before I went to the gym. However, the combination of lukewarm broker opinion and a stock that hadn't broken last week's high led me to hesitate. Now, it's trading above 60.5 and it's starting to look promising.
Long at 61.5.

3.46 Suncorp is up today. NAB has just declared that it is a substantial holder - 7% so far. It must have been a badly kept secret because the stock raced out of the blocks this morning only to fade throughout the day until the announcement a few minutes ago. The market is shaking off its malaise gradually and is now up 23 points as the rest of the region rises solidly. It's still a very cautious market though.

3.59 I've just bought some Linc energy at 148. They're finishing strongly and breaking out of a range having been depressed by an equity issue.

4.07 Today I've been struck by the compulsion to be busy, to feel like I'm doing a job.....and so far it has cost me money. There was no need to get out of Lynas which sat in a range for a few hours then kicked on again, while Sbm is also firmer. Meanwhile, Tpi was a top of the range buy and only Lnc is looking smart. I had spare cash to add a new position or two so really didn't need to sell anything.

4.14 I forgot about Mah, which is actually quite a good chart, although not as good as Lyc because it's still below recent highs. I had quite a good day with Mpo and Sbm strong but it could have been much better with some more patience.

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