Losing the arm wrestle. Mon Sep 28

The bears are fighting back this morning and after the surprise up day on Friday, another moderately weak overnight lead has brought the market slamming back by 66 points at 11.26 am. Fortunately, my positions are doing their own thing. Ifn is up 6.5 as it held support and is well bid now. Lnc is holding around 176. I'm kind of stuck here - it's just above support but it could be a while before it gathers some momentum. Lynas is still suspended with no specific news around about their capital raising. Mig is slightly lower and my hope for a move up out of the range was premature.

I suspect that overall we may have seen a short term high although I'd like to see more evidence of a turn. I'm starting to see some tradeable shorts now but they mostly look like retracements in bullish patterns.

Here's Bsl. There's a lower high after a retracement type rally this month. On a smaller scale there a minor sell signal on Friday with the stock trading below 304. I don't see a lot of momentum here to trade with but if the market starts to break down then this could gather pace.

Ipl has a similar pattern. I was briefly short this a couple of weeks ago and while it has fallen it's done so in a choppy fashion - not what I'm looking for. Nevertheless, it's indicative of more and more of the charts around at the moment.

One Steel is more volatile than the other big steel stock, Bsl, and has cracked through 316 support this morning. It's at 309 now. 12.18 I've stopped out of Mig at 152 (v 149.5) and that's the pattern for most of my positions at the moment, a promising set up and no follow through. It indicates that the rallies are long in the tooth and don't have much energy. Lnc has had another leg down also and I'm once again irritated that I didn't stick to a simple trailing stop.

I've looked through more charts and the shorting opportunities definitely outnumber the bullish set ups. I'm planning to short Ipl later on - we've got an attempted rally right now - as I realise that it broke down on Friday but rallied with the overall market only to reconfirm the breakdown this morning.

2.42 The market has rallied a fair way off its lows now; down 40 points from a low of down nearly 70. I sold a few Ipl earlier at 288. I've been fairly cautious about selling too many as I expected some sort of intraday rally, but it hasn't really eventuated.

3.54 I've stopped out of Lnc at 169 (v 178), two days too late and blotting my copybook after selling out half at 198 last week. I'd given it a few hours to rally with the market, which is now down 33 points, but it didn't manage to get started.

4.12 The market has closed with the Xjo index down by 36 points. Ifn is the standout performer for me today, up 7.5 at 147.5. I stopped out of Mig and Lnc. I'm still long Lyc by default as it's suspended and I sold a few more Ipl at 288 in the match as it closed near the lows.