Tuesday, September 29, 2009

New highs. Tue Sep 29

The penultimate day of the quarter has bought another new high as the scenario outlined last Friday has played out. I don't necessarily see a lot of further upside for most issues - the banks have been the main driver of the market lately - and scanning through my usual stocks it's mainly my recent favourites which are still looking good.
Of the overnight positions, long Ifn is looking ok, up in line with the market at 150 while my short in Ipl is also performing for me - down 4 at 284. Lynas is suspended still as the share issue is lined up.
I've bought back into Bly and Vba at 31.5 and 43 respectively.
Here's Bly.I'd like to see this close strongly so I've only bought half of my intended position.

Vba has broken through previous highs at 43 on its way to a day's high of 44. This has been a choppy rally so far and I'd like to see it gain momentum. I think it's possible but again I've only bought half because I want to wait until the close.

Linc energy is back up to 177 today and just about a buy again. I've been discussing with a friend what went wrong (and right) with my trading in this lately. I was experimenting with keeping a wider stop in the very explosive charts. I realise that I probably had it 100% wrong: I should have a very tight trailing stop in the explosive charts and use a swing stop in the trend channel type trades like Vba. It's slightly academic because I want to only be in explosive stocks and I'm in Vba because I think it can accelerate. Nevertheless, I suppose if Vba chops around for a couple of days I should at least have a wider stop here.

2.38 The market has been in a tight range since it topped out earlier indicating that it could close on its highs. No real change with my positions except that Bly is a tick or so firmer. I'm interested in Mre which has a similar chart to Bly but I think it's a good day away from where I'd like to buy it.

3.27 Mre surprised me slightly with continued strength and a breakout at 97 so long now at 97.5.

4.00 Ouch. Just stopped out of Ifn at 146 (v 144) as it reversed on the day only to see it bounce back into the close. I'm happy to be out but irritated that I didn't go earlier when I put on the Mre trade.

4.10 The market has finished in the afternoon's tight trading range but up 76 points at a new closing high. I decided not to add to Bly and Vba as they didn't quite finish on their highs although they closed quite bullishly. Long Bly, Lyc, Mre and Vba and short Ipl.

I'm having trouble limiting myself to 3 positions. I think the issue is that I get 1 to 2 new trades a day which means I need to be selling out 1 to 2 every day and therefore holding for a 2 day period. It's possible, firstly, that 3 positions is unrealistic, 4 to 5 might cover it and, secondly, that I should be quicker to cut positions. This goes against a lot of trading folklore (and rational theory) but I'm trying to get on stocks as they're surging so if I wait for a trailing stop I'm often giving up most of my profit and increasing - say, doubling - the time that the money is at risk in a particular trade. I'm experimenting with using a simple trailing stop on the 60 minute chart but only when the stock has just been surging.

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