Monday, September 21, 2009

Doing the filing. Mon Sep 21

It's a morning for doing the filing because despite another small gain in US indices on Friday, the Australian market is down 21 points at 11.26 am in very quiet trade. It's lacklustre stuff after the burst of volume at the close of trading on Friday. I'm having a mixed morning with my positions, 2 winners and 1 loser. Bsl is up 4 at 316 and Qan is up 5 at 283 while Gpt is back 2 to 66.5, where it was trading before a surge on Friday's match out.

12.05 I'm still watching Transpacific industries and after a shallow correction the stock is making a tentative buy signal. However, there isn't any energy to it yet so I'm in two minds. The company is highly leveraged to economic recovery and is possibly under owned despite the recent issue because of their fall from grace in the bear market. Tpi fell from 1146 (adjusted price) in 2007 to 103 in July.

12.52 The market is continuing to fade and Qan has staged a reversal so I'm out at 279 (v 273).

2.12 I just scanned through the stocks trading below 500 in the top 200. There wasn't anything particularly compelling which I'm not already watching. I'm still long Bsl and Gpt and I'm watching Lnc, Lyc, Mig and Vba. Tpi has slipped away so I've taken that off my list. None of them have broken through but I like Vba the best. There's the problem of the recent issue overhanging but there doesn't seem to be a useful rule of thumb at the moment. For example, Bly has struggled with the aftermath of their recent issue, while Lnc and Gns have shaken theirs off.

I like the way the correction held just above the breakout at 33. It's now forming up bullishly and a break of 40 would be promising, with 43 the next target.

Overall, the market has steadied and is down 18.

3.38 I'm long Mig now at 151 as it has pushed through last Thursday's high of 150. I'm hoping for a surge like in late July.


4.10 Bsl has been disappointing today but is still making higher lows so I'll hold a touch longer. Gpt has had a small pullback; there's a trailing stop set up below 66 now. Mig has spiked up as high as 155 although it has closed at 152 which is still above the break point. The market's down 16 points.

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